Richard Aldous is the Eugene Meyer Professor of British History and Literature at Bard College, a contributing editor at The American Interest, and host of The American Interest podcast.
For all the speeches by politicians and the analysis of pundits, no-one really has a clue what will happen in Thursday’s election. History, however, suggests a few ways things could go.
As the Liberal Democrats head to what looks like a bruising defeat in next month’s elections, Nick Clegg may not even get to hold on to his seat in Parliament, despite what historians may end up seeing as a laudable stint in government.
A lasting legacy for a minor party may not always come through the holding of power, but by how successfully it forces a major party to alter course. That is likely to be UKIP’s contribution to history.
Tony Blair made his return to the political limelight to issue a broadside to Conservative dalliances with euroskepticism. His deft political touch is still in evidence.
Competency at managing the economy during a rough few years, and a stable and familiar hand at the helm: that’s the pitch Conservatives—and to a certain extent the Liberal Democrats—have for the United Kingdom’s voters in a few weeks.
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