Snorkels for Democracy

Reality is beginning to dawn in North Africa and the Middle East. Without the economic growth necessary to support the development of stable and effective democratic governments, the wave of optimism that accompanied the Arab Spring has fallen flat.There are lots of problems with the MENA economies, but a decline in tourism — an important […]

Grandpa Wen Brings Doctor’s Note To Train Crash Site

It was an unusual public apology, a justification for tardiness that we wouldn’t expect from Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao. The point isn’t whether or not his sickness was dubious (with supreme devotion to duty the premier met with foreign leaders while in hospital) but that he had to publicly admit his sickness as an excuse […]

Whacking Cyprus

EU leaders are losing their game of financial Whack-A-Mole.  New moles pop up before the old ones can be hammered back underground.Fortunately the latest mole to stick up its head is arunt: Cyprus. A battle over austerity has divided the island’s (Communist) government. The island’s banks, among Europe’s largest holders of Greek bonds, will take a […]

Media Mistakes Chilly Smile for Thaw

Are India and Pakistan about to kiss and make up?Some observers think so.They are wrong.India and Pakistan have a long history of freezes and thaws — and journalists get too  excited either way.Pakistan’s stylish new foreign minister has wowed the media with her youth and western ways.  Yawn.  As cynical (Indian) journalists note, Pakistan has […]

China Innovation Lags

Don’t believe everything you read about Chinese innovation, research and development. While the headlines proclaim: “China to overtake US on science in two years” and “China seen overtaking U.S. in research“, China is still a long way behind the global competition.So says the WSJ, looking closely at patent filings in the leading countries.  95 percent of […]

Pelosi: Uncle Sugar is Dead

An important post at Talking Points Memo this morning observes that the “anti-Keynesians” have won the Washington argument for now; stimulus is dead and austerity rules.  The evidence: a Nancy Pelosi statement that “it is clear we must now enter an age of austerity.”Fair enough, although Pelosi’s idea of austerity may not quite be up […]

Asia's Scissor Crisis

The crises in Europe and the US get most of the ink, but Asia faces a dangerous double threat to its growth and stability that in the long run may have greater implications for the global picture.As the Asia Development Bank notes in a recent report, inflation is rising across Asia.  Currency manipulation (pegging currencies […]

European Financial Crisis Testing France

The IMF has warned France that its budget deficit will not hit the target (3 percent of GDP in 2013) without more spending cuts.  Bad news for President Sarkozy’s uphill re-election campaign, and a sign, also of the growing strains at the heart of modern Europe: the postwar partnership between France and Germany forged by […]

Great Expectations

Here’s one way to deal with the problems of the breakdown of the Blue Social Model: assume them away.Bloomberg reports that many state pension funds have been assuming an annualized return of 8% on their investments, despite earning no more than half that in recent years (Washington’s state fund, the top performer, only managed to […]

Reset Sunk?

The US has put 60 Russian officials on a visa black list because of their presumed involvement with the death of Sergei Magnitsky, a whistleblower who appears to have been framed and perhaps murdered by corrupt officials.  The Russian Foreign Ministry has attacked that decision, threatening unspecified retaliation against the US.The Magnitsky affair painfully demonstrates […]

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