The price of oil has fallen dramatically in recent months, and analysts suggest that that’s been a net positive for the U.S. economy.

The Saudis cut the price of crude sold to the U.S. this week in what many see as a bid to squeeze out shale, but the world’s petro-states could lose a lot in this game of chicken.

Much has been made of the potential of America’s shale gas to find buyers abroad, but with many gas contracts tied to the price of oil and the recent rapid decline of said price, U.S. LNG seems to be losing the potential cost advantage it was purported to have.

OPEC’s Secretary General recently claimed that U.S. shale production would be the first to feel the effects of lower oil prices, but the breakeven numbers tell a different story.

Putin denied reports that the Russian government’s budget is being threatened by dropping crude prices, but the data tells a different story. Petrostates around the world are watching a bearish oil market with increasing concern.

OPEC has chosen not to cut production to help stabilize falling oil prices, and in fact Saudi Arabia has started offering price discounts to customers in Europe and Asia in an attempt to gain market share. The Saudis are testing the chops of the American shale boom. Is fracking up to the challenge?

American shale producers are nervously eying the plunging price of oil, concerned that fracking may cease being profitable in the U.S. For now, the price of oil exists in a sweet spot: high enough to keep the shale boom going, but low enough to put the pinch on petrostates like Russia.

Oil prices are plunging on surging supply and torpid demand, putting pressure on the world’s petrostates, which have come to rely on high prices just to balance their budgets. So why hasn’t OPEC moved to cut production?

The price of oil is dropping by the day, and while plenty has been made of the effect this decline could have on the world’s petrostates, there’s a growing concern that America’s shale boom might be in danger.