News Analysis
The (Near) Future of Oil Lies in Moscow’s Hands
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  • FriendlyGoat

    They don’t get $100. Consumers don’t get $50.

  • Psalms13626

    I said it before, and I will definitely say it again. But being a swing producer of a commodity like oil is the absolute tits!!!! Given how much domestic oil is produced, the price for oil that derives maximum economic benefit for the US has risen. I mind paying Muhammad and Vladimir. Paying Mr. Rodriguez down in Texas strikes me as a lot more fair.

  • Fat_Man

    OPEC has not been meaningful or effective since the 1980s. Cartels never work. Members cheat. That is true with OPEC as it is everywhere else.

    Central bank efforts to kick start their economies and to reintroduce inflation in the wake of the Panic of 2008 are what really explains commodity prices. Supply has not been damped. Demand has gone up because of the return of the US economy to relative health.

    Yesterday, Commerce announced that recent quarters show a return to normal growth patters after a decade of subnormal growth,

    Please no more OPEC stories. They are stupid and irrelevant.

  • Trumps in the hands of the Russian Federation – the game will continue.
    In 2016, Goldman Sachs analysts are of the opinion that the historical OPEC and the Russian Federation will support commodity quotes, but only for a short time. The forecasts did not come true – do not believe American analysts.
    The OPEC-Russia deal is a gift for American slates, against the backdrop of a price surge above 50 dollars per barrel, and in October – and above 60, they have increased production by 1.1 million barrels per day since the beginning of the year. The volume of US oil exports in November exceeded 2 million barrels per day, making the United States one of the world’s top five suppliers.
    All OPEC countries agree that the deal needs to be extended for the entire 2018 year. Russia is not a member of OPEC. The
    conjunctural coincidence of interests is not yet an occasion to join the club of our strategic competitors in the oil and investment markets.
    Strategically, Russia is interested in reducing costs, tax burdens and risks for companies – there is no direct dependence of the economy on the extraction of raw materials in Russia. The share of oil, gas and other minerals in the GDP structure is less than
    9%, in contrast to the total dependence of OPEC countries on oil exports. Myths that at a low oil price the Russian economy will collapse and that oil in Russia will soon end and a catastrophe will be popular in the US – but they do not correspond to reality.

    Козыри в руках РФ – игра будет продолжена.
    В 2016 году аналитики банка Goldman Sachs придерживаются мнения, что историческое ОПЕК и РФ поддержит сырьевые котировки, но лишь на непродолжительное время. Прогнозы не сбылись – не верьте американским аналитикам.
    Сделка ОПЕК-Россия это подарк для американских сланцевиков, на фоне взлета цен сначала выше 50 долларов за баррель, а в октябре – и выше 60, они нарастили добычу на 1,1 млн баррелей в сутки с начала года. Объемы экспорта американской нефти в ноябре превысили 2 млн баррелей в день, сделав США одним из пяти крупнейших мировых поставщиков.
    Все страны ОПЕК согласны с тем, что сделку нужно продлить на весь 2018 год. Россия не является членом ОПЕК. Конъюнктурное совпадение интересов – еще не повод вступать в клуб наших стратегических конкурентов на нефтяном и инвестиционном рынках. Стратегически Россия заинтересована снижении издержек, налогового бремени и рисков для компаний – прямой зависимости экономики от добычи сырья в России нет. Доля добычи нефти, газа и других полезных ископаемых в структуре ВВП составляет менее 9%, в отличии от тотальной зависимости стран ОПЕК от экспорта нефти. Мифы о том, что при низкой цене на нефть экономика России рухнет и, что нефть в России скоро кончится и настанет катастрофа популярны в США – но не соотвествуют действительности.

  • What about the Middle Eastern oil giants? The Saudis and Iran, don’t they also wield huge influence in terms of energy resources, even compared to Russia?

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