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The Fog of War
Will the Russians Try Another Land Grab in Ukraine?
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  • PierrePendre

    Russia watchers usually assume that the separatists goons in eastern Ukraine march in lockstep with Moscow, when the reality is much messier.


    This is plausible. During the war in Yugoslavia, the West assumed that Milosevic controlled the Serb rebellions in Croatia and Bosnia but while he had considerable influence, he didn’t have full control and Belgrade’s authority was frequently challenged by local leaders on the ground. Milosevic eventually pulled the rug from under the rebel Serbs in Krajina in southern Croatia but he was defied by the better organised Bosnian Serbs. When he went in person to Pale, the Bosnian Serb political headquarters, to sell a deal he had brokered with US envoy Rchard Holbrooke, he was rebuffed by General Mladic who commanded Bosnian Serb forces. Milosevic then sealed his border with Bosnia and the Bosnian Serbs fought on alone until all the parties were brought together on neutral territory at Dayton. Local rebel commanders rely on political and material support from capitals that created their movements but gradually develop interests of their own and distance makes them hard though not impossible to control.

    • Kev

      The same is true about US-backed jihadis in Syria. US leardership assumed they could use these goons to eliminate Assad, they were armed and trained by the CIA for this purpose. Instead, these “moderate rebels” went on to create their own Islamic state in Syria and Iraq. US miscaculated badly.

  • Kev

    If I were Russian military planner looking for another piece of Ukraine to take over I would grab Kharkov, not Mariupol. Kharkov is the second biggest city of Ukraine, a major economic center less than 40km away from Russian border, COMPLETELY UNDEFENDED.

  • Aidarenok

    Bullshit propaganda

  • Olesja Dalko

    …Russia was sending fresh tanks over the border into Donbas…

    Tanks are not needles. It is impossible to hide such a movement from satellites. Are there pictures made by the U.S. spy-in-the-sky of Russian tanks crossing the border? Something makes me doubt.

  • Сирёжа Лапкин

    Already that year beat the Russian army , and it is still not attacked .

  • Cool Pool

    Apparently, the author finds a logical explanation as to why the Ukrainian military engaged in rape and torture of citizens of Ukraine, in anticipation of the Russian ‘aggression’?!
    The US government has allocated million $ to support the Ukrainian military. In Ukraine, there are military advisers from the US, Canada and some European countries. It will be very bad if it turns out that they took part in all of this.
    It is also not clear how this fact could have been unnoticed representatives of the American and European media outlets operating in the territory of Ukraine.
    Ukrainian volunteer unit troops raped underage girls, filmed it on phones – MP

    “When the Tornado commanders were detained, their mobile phones were seized. There was some scary footage on those phones… footage of sex orgies and rape,” Chronovol said in an interview with Ukrainian broadcaster 112.
    “There were even babies. As I understand the baby’s mother was forced to do this under the threat of death of her child,” the Verkhovna Rada deputy stressed.
    “There were rapes of underage girls” in the videos Chronovol said.

    The Tornado unit was formed in October 2014 as part of Ukrainian Interior Ministry.

    P.s. Chronovolt – very difficult to blame the fact that it is an agent of the Kremlin or Putin.

    • Banned for use of RT as a primary source.

      • Cool Pool

        RT refers to an interview with Ukrainian deputy Chronovol, which was given to the Ukrainian TV channel 112.
        I hope that the words «Chronovol» and “112” will not lead to the removal of my posts?
        Still I want to hear how your article corresponds to reality, where the Ukrainian military are engaged in mass rapes of citizens of Ukraine? I understand that if your version of events is correct, then all this should be dealt with Russian soldiers.
        I repeat the words Chronovol:
        “When the Tornado commanders were detained, their mobile phones were seized. There was some scary footage on those phones… footage of sex orgies and rape,”
        “There were even babies. As I understand the baby’s mother was forced to do this under the threat of death of her child,”
        “There were rapes of underage girls”
        Link to original interview is necessary?

        I also want to remind you that in Ukraine there are military advisers from the US and Canada, as well as some European countries. Also on the territory of Ukraine there are many representatives of the American media. Next to the building Ukrainian intelligence is developing an American flag. Apparently, they did not know about what is really going on!

      • Dima

        Can you please provide a link to the list of sources that AI considers worthy of Disqus comment censorship? I’d respectfully suggest that you make this policy available prominently on your site – perhaps in a footer link. I’m sure many users are not aware that AI maintains such a list. Many thanks.

      • Cool Pool

        Original interview Chronovol for the Ukrainian channel 112:
        By the way, in the RT news was a link to the video.
        Good luck.

  • Lev Havryliv

    Russia is continuing its dirty, sneaky war by proxy against Ukraine in the Donbas. Over ten thousand lives have been lost in Putin’s neo-imperial drive into Ukraine.

    Following Ukraine’s Euromaidan revolution Putin tried to organise a pro-Russian uprising in all of eastern Ukraine. He called it his “Russian Spring”. It was miserable failure for him. Then Putin proposed his “Novorosia” project, a purely artificial imperial construct. It too collapsed.

    Putin’s armies now control only the eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk. These backwaters of crime and corruption were the base of the former corrupt, nepotistic dictator Yanukovich who is now hiding in Russia under Putin’s protection.

    Putin is looking more and more like a loser who has put the Russian people under great distress and hardship. All for his mad imperial drive into Ukraine, a country that is no threat to Russia.

    • Сирёжа Лапкин

      Go drink a cure , the disease . Try to check out the different sources of information , and not just CNN. Take off your TV with the head. Improve their education. Politically ignorant , useful idiot .

  • Saratov

    The old good lie.
    “Putin himself frequently talked about the liberation of the whole of Novorossiya”. Author, could you give me links to this words?
    “… until the Kremlin turned on a dime and declared the project dead”. Author, do I see you try to prove your lie by the link to other lie? I would like to see link to the, not to the
    Please, stop quote your own fantasies as our words.
    With love from Russia.

    • When you’re right, you’re right: I was sloppy. Fixed (though most likely not to your satisfaction)…

      • Saratov

        Damir, thank you for your honest answer.
        Damir, I’ve really tired reading western media. Because there is bad trend in the western media to claim own thoughts as Russian plans.
        I’m really pleased, thank you for understanding.

  • Saratov

    To Lev Havryliv
    You’ve written: “Over ten thousand lives have been lost in Putin’s neo-imperial drive into Ukraine.”
    Yes, but these civiliances were killed in Dondas and Lugansk by Ukrainian artillery and aviation, not in Kiev or Lvov.
    Lev, do you know the sence of the shame?
    With shame from Russia.

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