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The Explosive India–Pakistan Situation
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  • Andrew Allison

    War, in which India will decimate Pakistan, may be the only way to break the stranglehold which the military holds on Pakistan. One can only hope that the Pakistani military recognizes this, and acts accordingly.

    • f1b0nacc1

      Don’t bet on it. the Paki security services (and the military is far, far less dangerous than the ISI) are almost entirely detached from reality. Their upper echelons are amazingly corrupt, and the only way that they can continue to maintain their control is to keep the fiction of India as their main enemy alive in the minds of the population. The Paki nukes are designed to make the Indians think twice about any sort of military conflict with Pakistan (a conflict that the Indians would win handily), and the increasingly tight connection between Pakistan and China makes this situation fraught with peril.

      • Andrew Allison

        I’m reminded of the concentration of the mind which imminent hanging brings about.

        • f1b0nacc1

          Yes, but remember Dr. Johnson first said ‘nothing settles as man’s mind as much as the knowledge that he will be hung in the morning’….

          Settle, concentrate, I am fine either way…lets just hang them.

  • Fat_Man

    Pakistan is our enemy. We should provide India with military assistance in this one up to and including bombing Pakistani military installations and providing counter measures to US equipment we so improvidently gave to Pakistan.

    • f1b0nacc1

      Of course one would have to wonder what the Pakis would do in retaliation…

      • Jim__L

        Personally, I think that the US should steer clear of any nuclear exchange in that part of the world, so long as none of the nukes are aimed at us.

        If they’re aimed at us, of course we should give a prize to whichever leg of our nuclear triad can make the rubble bounce the highest.

        • f1b0nacc1

          Did I suggest otherwise? Using our nukes in a first strike role should be ruled out in all but the most extreme circumstances (offhand I can only think of one or two, and they are not applicable here), but if nukes are used against us…well the ‘parking lot’ metaphor seems quite apt.

      • Fat_Man

        They already did 9/11.

        • f1b0nacc1

          More the Saudis than the Pakis, but your broader point stands

          • Fat_Man

            They are all our enemies. We have no friends in the Muslim world. None. They will tell you, a Muslim cannot be a friend of an infidel.

          • f1b0nacc1

            As I said, your broader point stands

  • JDogg

    Reminds me of the final scene in War Games, where the computer is simulating nuclear war over and over, faster and faster, trying to find a way to win. It cycles through many scenarios of how such as war would start, showing that after an initial exchange the war conflagrates into a full US-Soviet exchange.

    I’m pretty sure one of the scenarios had to be “India-Pakistan Initial Exchange”.

    • f1b0nacc1

      That scenario was in there….
      Of all the places were nukes are likely to be used, India and Pakistan has to be in the top 2 or 3, with only the Koreas ranking higher. Even in the Middle East, the major nuclear powers have too much to lose to take that step (yet)…

  • brianreilly

    Short curry futures. There might not be as much demand soon. Short the China Silk Road construction index. Gonna be a lot more expensive if they need lead lined railcars.

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