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South China Sea Standoff
Will the Philippines Throw the Hague’s Ruling in the Trash?
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  • Dhako

    I am afraid, I hate to disappoint the geopolitical ululations that is happening in here, and bring the issue to ground and explain how China sees things, and the how things will pan out, not necessarily the way, the folks in TAI would prefer things to be. Hence, with that, these are the few reality that needs to be bear in mind in here, in so far as the South China Sea is concern. And they are as follows:

    1- China means business in South China Sea (SCS). And, moreover, no talk of gin-up tribunal will sway her from her considered position.

    2- The US, as have been cataloged in this issue, have been trying to fish from a troubled water, so that her economically receding foot-print in this region can be bolstered by an active military presence in the area. Or at any rate, a situation can be created on the back of this dispute, whereby the US can sell her “insurance policy” to the states in this region, in which she will say, I will defend you against China, and in return, please see to it, to accept my free trade agenda, so that, the US’s economical presence in the region will stand a better chance of competing against the ever increasing Chinese’s Geo-economical heftiness in this region.

    Hence, it’s China’s imperative that such an “insurance policy” must be seen to have no teeth to check China, so that others (say Malaysia or Vietnam) who may be tempted to purchase this insurance policy from Uncle Sam (in the manner the Philippines have already done so) should think twice in investing a large political and economical investment in this US’s insurance policy, particularly once they see how the Philippines insurance policy from uncle Sam, has done nothing to dissuade or thwart China from her cause of action. It’s important for China’s larger agenda in her region that nations in her area should never get the idea that, Uncle Sam, can stop China at any moment she chooses to do so, particularly from issues of touching on the territorial claim of China.

    3- China has given the US sufficient understanding of her “core interests” (or China’s red-lines), as well as informing the US that China would rather have same kind of “great power understanding” in-terms of each country agenda and its core-interests. However the US have decided to play a clever-by-half game of trying to create a troubled water in China’s back-yard, with the specific intention of profiting from it, in the sense of trying to have it’s military expanded into those areas, as well as ginning up some sort of economical benefits from this region on the account of how regional states must be protected from China.

    Hence, for South East Asia (or the ASEAN States) it’s important for China not concede the US’s games, or allow the US’s pivot to the region to be a “service-able containing card” on China’s action. Subsequently, since US instead of strategical engagement with China on a mutually beneficial basis, have decided to elect herself to be “Gendarmerie” of the China’s Seas (i.e., East and South) regardless of what China thinks, then it’s imperative for China, to also “nullify” (as best she can) any agenda that advances US’s geopolitical footprints in and around China’s seas.

    4- And, finally, this ruling – regardless of what it says, or how it comes down on – will simply be ignored by China. And, it’s likely that the new leader of Philippines (Mr Duterte) will have something of a momentous decision to make. Which is he could either be a “pawn” of a US’s strategical game-playing against China, and allow his nation to be the economical casualty of it, as his predecessor was determined to be.

    Or he can take a full stride (as he recently indicated) to be on a good terms with China, while never falling for the US’s agenda of trying to make his nation as a “strategical bait” against China. Which means, he will politically and diplomatically ignore this ruling (if it’s in Philippines favor) and he will try to open a “mutual dialogue” with China (without Uncle Sam being present in the discussion) so that a mutually beneficial resource exploration in this sea can be agreed on between the China and Philippines.

    However, whatever president Duterte decides, it’s given that China will try to accommodate him, provided he plays for his nation’s interests alone, and not at the behest of a third party intending to create a difficulty for China, while at the same time trying to use the Philippines, as a discard-able “strategical bait”. If not, then, like Aquino, before him, he will of course be the darling of the Beltway’s Geo-strategists. But his nation will lose, and lose big when it comes to any claim Philippines could ever have had right to own it in the South China Sea (SCS).

    Hence the “strategical ball” will be with him now that the ruling of the tribunal had hits the world news headlines. Lets hope he will be a man who will read his nation’s interest in far sighted way than the manner his predecessor, President Aquino, have done it, during his tenure of his nation’s highest office.

  • Andrew Allison

    You overlook the fact that the ruling applies to several countries other than the Philippines.

    • Dhako

      It’s Philippines who have been “charmed” by the US’s Geo-Strategists, to the point of taking this thing to all the way to the international tribunal. Hence, once the “game” the US is playing behind the curtains (with an assist by Philippines former president) is exposed, then, any other nations in the region, who may be tempted to follow this foot-step, will see the futility of acting as a pawn for US interests in this region.

      Subsequently, the ball is with President Duterte, and how he will play now will show the real impact of going forward. However, whatever the case may be, it will be before hell freeze cold before China take account of this gin-up tribunal and what it had ruled.

      So, from that perspective, everything will come down on who will be the one will blink first in here. For China will not allow the US to make the Chinese as a power than can be “stared down” when it comes to her territorial agenda, regardless of how could be costly for China, going forward; even if it’s something the US will dearly love to see happening. So, lets see how this “game of chicken” plays out in the this contested sea.

      • Tom

        And if there is a war, you’ll lose.

        • Dhako

          If you are confident of that, at least in South China Sea (SCS) then Why doesn’t US, simply start a shooting war in that area. After all, you have your navy there, in the form of US’s Seventh Fleet. Hence, what does the uncle Sam is waiting for? Why doesn’t it make good on it’s endless guff about how China will come to a cropper in this areas, since we know now that China will not be sway by some sort of hot-air braggadocio spouted by Uncle Sam. So, please, enough with Rambo-like silly talk, and see what US can do to China in this area, and we shall see who is delusional in here.

          • Tom

            Because no one wants a war, you blithering twit. But the fact is that the United States can afford one a lot better than you can.
            Deal with it.

    • f1b0nacc1

      Don’t feed the trolls…this one makes the Goat look like Cicero

      • Dhako

        You really have wasted good opportunity to remain silent. And the reason is that since by the looks of it if you have done that then perhaps others hunches of you being a contemptible imbecile would have remained just that. But now it really is the case that you have removed all doubt about that, indeed. Which is pity, really.

        • Tom

          It’s a pity that you never take your own advice. We know you’re a paid troll for the PRC.

          • Dhako

            On the contrary, I am not even a Chinese, much less of been a paid troll of anyone. But, then again, the mark of those who have lost the argument is to say that those who bested them must really be in the pay of others.

          • Tom

            Really? You’ve never commented on an article that didn’t involve China, your diction and syntax scream ESL, and as to your last sentence, why engage in argument when your view of the world is more ludicrous than that of a Trump supporter?

      • Andrew Allison

        My comment was addressed to the post, not the idiotic Chinese troll. His vacuous commentary doesn’t require a response (and doesn’t belong on the blog). Furthermore your hypothesis is, to say the least, debatable [grin]

  • Nevis07

    … Well, it would seem all the pieces are now officially set on the chessboard. I expect the true start of the game to begin with the next administration, but that’s just my guess… Trump, Hillary, who knows. But I don’t think Xi has any intention of walking away, even if he could at this point…

    • Icepilot

      The “chessboard” changes every day & shows no signs of a slow down. I expect major events to increase in frequency, especially between now & 20 Jan 2017.

  • s_c_f

    The problem is that the Philippines knows that by standing with the international community, nothing will be achieved, certainly nothing in the short tern. China will continue to do as they please until at least one country with a sizeable military (which is not the Philippines) is willing to take stand up to the Chinese. If the Philippines cuts deals with China, they will at least be getting something. Of course, that’s assuming China is willing to talk, which is what Duterte is alluding to. If China does not agree to talks, then Duterte may take a different course.

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