The increasingly troubled state of European politics today suggests that the continent is facing a problem whose roots run deeper than arguments over policy. Today, the policy elites of Europe’s wealthiest states seem to inhabit an alternate reality to that of their voters, one in which the growing public rejection of globalism is but a hiccup, and that the European project in its current form is still implementable. As for the Transatlantic alliance, many a government seems to think repeated assertions of shared values and NATO’s immutable solidarity can take the place of defense expenditures and genuine capabilities. In capital after European capital, what appears to pass for governance is management—with an admixture of wishful thinking, in which day-to-day risk avoidance is applauded as transformative decision making, as everyone hopes that in the end things will work out somehow.
European societies have been increasingly sending the message to their leaders that the nation state is not something they want to see dismantled, but rather something they want to preserve. Moreover, their voting patterns would suggest that, in their minds, national cultures are valuable legacies that ought to be cherished and passed on to the next generation. This way of thinking does not make your average Italian, German, Swede, or Hungarian an unreconstructed xenophobe; rather, it represents an intuitive sense in community after community that an orderly and secure society requires more to flourish than the availability of cheaply produced goods and efficient bureaucratic institutions. Hence, regardless of what formula the European Union ultimately adopts as its preferred framework for reforming itself, if the European project is to continue it will have to factor into its strategic calculus the increasingly strong public desire for a European Union that favors the preservation of the nation-state, with the concept of subsidiarity enshrined in its core documents. The problem is that this message seems not to have gotten through to Europe’s policy elites, the result being that political stasis is increasingly the new normal across the continent.
Europe’s once proud dream of federalism is withering on the vine, with Britain not so much leaving the Union in an orderly fashion as pitching one political tantrum after another. The internal disputes within the British government are perhaps less a display of regret over the electorate’s decision as they are a response to being pulled in multiple directions by multiple players. Despite its great wealth, Germany struggles to lead as it engages in spurts of reactive politics, plugging holes in the country’s increasingly frayed fabric of societal consensus. It seems to be still too unsure of itself and deeply constrained by its historical limitations to move beyond the mantra of “more Europe…”, though with each passing month it becomes harder to ascertain what this oft-repeated remedy would actually entail. France’s power is too limited in comparison for the youthful Macron to reorient the behemoth that was once the European Union in any but a strategically irrelevant direction. Italy struggles to control immigration and to keep its head above water when it comes to the economy. Meanwhile, the smaller players, such as Austria, the Netherlands, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Poland, have begun to chart their own course, though they remain too fragmented (excluding the Visegrád Four, perhaps) to meaningfully impact Europe’s overall direction. Meanwhile, the urgent problem of acculturating immigrants and reversing the internal balkanization of European states continues to pose a fundamental policy challenge across the continent.
Europe’s future hinges first and foremost on what happens in Germany in the next couple of years, for it will be the outcome of the ongoing German party realignment that will set the tone for what is to come. Furthermore, most economic projections for the next decade show that the wealth imbalance between the Federal Republic and its EU partners will only continue to grow. Given the anticipated GDP growth rates for the largest economies in Europe in the next decade, there is no escaping the fact that Germany’s economic and financial strength will play an ever-greater role on the continent, the more so after the United Kingdom, Europe’s second largest economy, leaves the Union. Hence, with each passing year, the notion that one can count on France and Germany working in a relatively co-equal political tandem to drive the EU train forward will grow ever more problematic, more a sign of nostalgia for the European project’s founding moment than a path into the future.
The second key variable that will shape Europe’s future will be how U.S.-German relations evolve going forward. The tenor of this bilateral relationship has been increasingly contentious. There are also some disturbing trends over the horizon when it comes to how Germans view the United States. Today more Germans want the U.S. military to leave their country than want it to stay. According to a recent poll, 42 percent want U.S. troops out of Germany, with only 37 percent in favor of their remaining and 21 percent expressing no opinion. Even more pointedly, the extremes have clear majorities in favor of severing military ties with the United States, with voters for the far-left Die Linke and far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) calling for an end to U.S. army bases (67 percent and 55 percent, respectively). What’s more, 35 percent of Angela Merkel’s CDU voters align with the extreme left-right voters on the issue of the U.S. military presence in Germany. These are disturbing trends that require leadership from both Berlin and Washington to address, for the bilateral U.S.-German relationship is central to NATO’s effectiveness.
Europe’s dilemma is not just internal, however, as pressure continues to build around it. The Middle East remains a cauldron whose sectarian wars and terrorism will continue to blow toxic steam onto the European continent. The immigration wave is not going to stop anytime soon, and unless the European Union finally develops the will to secure the external border and stop the inflow of immigrants, the grand idea of Schengen visa-free travel and a de facto borderless Europe will soon be history. Externally, amidst the growing regional turmoil, Iran’s confrontation with Israel constitutes a risk not seen since the Yom Kippur War. As the United States works to strengthen NATO’s defenses and also finds itself increasingly compelled to look to the Pacific, Russia and Turkey will stake ever-stronger claims to shape the new order in and around Europe.
There are few certainties left when it comes to the future of Europe; the shopworn platitudes still in circulation will no longer suffice. There is no doubt that it is simply beyond the capacities of many a politician to contemplate fully the alternatives to the crumbling status quo. Still, it remains to be seen whether, and if so how quickly, Europe’s elites will dispel their illusions about what the continent’s future should look like, reconnect with their electorates, and deal with the here and now. Clinging to old mantras is likely to only marginalize the political establishment further: As the political middle in Europe shrinks, the flank movements are likely to continue to gather in strength and could ultimately capture the public square.
Today Europe is headed toward an inflection point that will define issues as fundamental as individual freedom, the meaning of nationality, and ultimately perhaps even peace and war. Still, governments across the continent lack consensus on the strategic principles needed to guide them over the stormy seas. Until that consensus is reached, Europe will continue to slouch into what threatens to become systemic paralysis.