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EU's Future
Macron Wins the First Round
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  • Boritz

    This is about politicians vs the Establishment. Got it. Are we no longer putting the E word in quotes because this is across the ocean or do we now really believe there is such a thing both here and there? Perhaps it’s appropriate that the people/voters aren’t mentioned except through the proxy of disparaged percentages. Nor is the possibility that Le Pen could win mentioned just as this blog never mentioned the likelihood that Trump would win until the sky fell, the planets left their orbits, and the galaxy reversed its orbital direction. If a cure for cancer is needed then even the most talented researcher can’t resolve on Sunday afternoon that, by golly, he is going in to the lab Monday morning and once and for all whip out a cure. What he can do is resolve to move things forward. If the Establishment is taking France down to destruction then shake up the Establishement’s comfortable world. American is your guide.

    • Andrew Allison

      Seems to me it’s the establishment versus the people. Center-left and center-right have been exchanging power for decades, with the result that France is a basket case. The fact that the losers in this race are explicitly telling their supporters to support the man who destroyed them at the polls in order to prevent much-needed change says it all. If the French don’t recognize this cynical maneuver for what it is and elect Le Pen, they’ll get the government they deserve.

  • Beauceron

    I want to like Macron. I like the idea of a centrist who, as he says, will take the best ideas from the left and right and work with them to better the country and its people.

    It’s just that I think he is a centrist exactly in the way Obama claimed to be a centrist in his initial run for president. Which is to say he is lying to get votes and will veer left as soon as he gets in office.

    I have also, I must say, become exhausted with the press using words like “extremist” and “far right” for every candidate they oppose. Le Pen may, in fact, be a far right extremist, but the words have no meaning anymore other than to signal establishment disapproval with a candidate who’s right of center.

    • ljgude

      Amen, Beauceon. If Le Pen is far tight, what was her father – far, far, far, far right? Is Cruz far right of far, far right? Perhaps May is not so far right, at least on Tuesdays.

    • Boritz

      Macon doesn’t have to lie He is absolutely a centrist by the standards of wnere he is. He has an elite culture and press to do that much lying for him.

    • FriendlyGoat

      If you “want” to like Macron, don’t stick the knife in him.

      • Beauceron

        I’m flattered you think my humble Discus post has such each and power.

        But I don’t let my desires eclipse my skepticism. I’d love it if Bigfoot were proven to be true. That doesn’t change the fact that the chances of their being a relic hominid wandering around the Pacific Northwest are impossibly small.

        • FriendlyGoat

          I’d like for Bigfoot to be found too. But not King Kong. Not space aliens. Not any of the “super heroes”. Not vampires. Not ghosts. Some things are more believable than others.
          Meanwhile the French will either break the recent pattern of 52% ruining various societies, or they won’t.

  • Suzy Dixon

    Yet another example where the establishment and establishment candidate fails, and the people are pulled to the left and to the right. In other words, they are pulled to people with at least the perception of real principles, for better or for worse.

  • Chris Caldwell said it best:

    • f1b0nacc1

      That was a superlative article…thank you for sharing it. I was most taken with the author’s observation that “French elites have convinced themselves that their social supremacy rests not on their economic might but on their common decency.”, something that would have been right at home coming from TAI. The idea that a supporter of the National Front or of Brexit (or for that matter, a Trump voter) might actually reject the advice of ‘their betters’ for reasons other than ignorance or bigotry is simply beyond their ability to understand….

      • Andrew Allison

        Interesting article but, based on their response to the election result, I would argue that the French elites have convinced themselves of their social supremacy, period. How else to explain the “Republican Front”? Incidentally, France is not alone in becoming two countries:

        • f1b0nacc1

          The French elites (was there ever a more useless phrase than that?, they might as well have used Russian epicureans!) are indeed convinced of their supremacy (social and otherwise) and are about to unite behind Marcon rather than even consider that Le Pen (shouldn’t it be La Pen?….grin) might have any ideas worth considering. They will very likely win in May, but at the cost of further alienating a large majority of the French electorate and convincing them that they have been utterly abandoned to the glories of globalism and the whims of their betters.

          I would argue that the Republican Front (catchy phrase!) is in fact exactly what the author of the article would have predicted, as the French elites (the ENA alumni association) hope to coopt Marcon (simple enough, I rather doubt that he really needs much convincing anyway), and keep that ‘horrid woman’ and her basket of deplorables far away from the levers of power. Most of them likely even believe that they are doing the morally necessary thing….

          By the way, thanks for that link…I have seen those maps before, but didn’t link to them at the time. You just saved me a bit of searching for a wonderfully descriptive set of maps to show the Coven when I meet with them later…

          • Andrew Allison

            La Le Pen [grin] or, as I’m sure we’ll hear from the RF, Le Pen Fille. Marcon IS an ENA alumni!

          • f1b0nacc1

            Of course he is…if his grades were better he would be in the civil service, not politics (grin)….

            Sir Humphrey smiles….

    • Beauceron

      Great link. Only read the first part, but printed for later.
      A lot of what he was saying about French cities resonates with me about America.

    • D4x
    • tellourstory

      Thank you for sharing that article. I enjoyed reading it immensely.

    • Eurydice

      Yes, that was a terrific article.

    • Jim__L

      ” we may have done nothing for the poor, but we did appoint the first disabled lesbian parking commissioner.”

      Yup. Redistribution among the elites, that’s the name of the game.

    • Angel Martin

      Great find on that article !

      One sad quote:

      “Thus, when 70 percent of Frenchmen tell pollsters, as they have for years now, that “too many foreigners” live in France,…”

      Yet 60+ percent of voters will vote for Macron, who is probably the most extreme open borders advocate of any western politician.

      Jean Raspail could see this lack of will to act by both the French elite and people 40 years ago.

  • WigWag

    Professor Mead is right; France is toast. So is Germany. So is Europe.

    Trump was right all along about the European Union being a dismal failure, but he is making a big mistake listening to Mattis and Tillerson about NATO. Trump’s Secretary of State and his Secretary of Defense are dyed in the wool globalists who either can’t see the forest from the trees or refuse to see the forest from the trees. NATO is as doomed as the EU is; its a sulking, cretinous behemoth that provides practically nothing of value to the United States.

    Trump’s refrain during the campaign was “American never wins any more.” He was right. Our country hasn’t won a military conflagration since World War II. We grabbed defeat from the jaws of victory in the first Iraq war and the second Iraq war and the conflict in Afghanistan have been unmitigated disasters. When it comes to military conflicts, our country never imposes its will on its adversaries; that is the point of war, isn’t it? About the closest we’ve come to victory in a “hot” war in the past seven decades is snatching Manuel Noriega from Panama and rescuing a few American medical students from a sunny beach in Granada; its not a military record to be proud of.

    NATO was of modest utility during the Cold War but that Cold War victory is finito; perhaps someone can explain how our alliance with Europe makes the United States appreciably stronger. I get the fact that wealthy American financiers make plenty of profits moving money throughout a borderless world, but how exactly do working class Americans benefit when the Germans, for example, steal their jobs?

    Nothing that James Mattis, Rex Tillerson or, for the matter, Donald Trump, can change the reality of Europe. Twenty fiver percent of the young in France are Muslims and a substantial number are radicalized. What happens when these young French Muslims begin having three and four children each while native French young people have at most one child each? Things in France are already tense, what do you suppose it will be like in a decade? What will France be like in two decades.

    The United States needs to start preparing for the steady but inexorable decline of Europe. One possibility that we need to think about is the potential for Germany to revisit Bismarck’s admonition to avoid getting on the run side of Russia. Neither Le Pen or Macron can save France; it’s too late, With France’s utility as an ally dissipated, it is reasonably likely that Germany will try to save itself by looking east; when it does, it will cast its eyes on Russia.

    This reality poses a major conundrum for the United States. We should start planning for it now. It’s time to take of the rose-colored glasses and to stop pretending that Europe is our ally.

    Europe is on the verge of becoming a reeking corpse.

    • f1b0nacc1

      During WWI, German generals confronting the strategic realities of being allied to the Austro-Hungarian Empire would refer to their situation as ‘being shackled to a corpse’. That is what we are facing now with Europe. The time has come to recognize this, and take affirmative steps to remedy the situation. Withdrawing from NATO is only a beginning….

      I am a bit more optimistic than you are with regard to Mattis and Tillerson…they are not here to provide deep strategic insights, only to manage the circumstances that currently exist.

    • Observe&Report

      Looks like you’ve been reading Spengler

      • WigWag

        I always read Spengler. And by the way, I read your comments at his site and I always enjoy them too.

        • Observe&Report

          I like Spengler a lot, as well. But I think he has France wrong.

          If Le Pen wins (however unlikely that is), she definitely won’t win a majority in the legislative elections that follow. That means she won’t be able to ram through her more outlandish economic policies, but the legislature will definitely get behind her in tackling Islamic immigration and terrorism. She’s not perfect, and I don’t like all her positions, but she’d be a serious shock to the system, and the death knell of the EU.

          The nations of Europe are of little use to America as allies (let alone themselves) as long as they’re trapped in this post-nationalist stupour that prevents them from dealing with their growing Islamic populations. I know it’s unlikely, but I’m still hoping for a surprise Le Pen victory.

  • ljgude

    Happy indeed is the country who’s borders coincide with their culture. France, Germany, UK, USA and so on. But fail to enforce those borders and pretend that culture is obsolete and you get chaos and decline. Le Pen has some good ideas too like rolling up the red carpet of multiculturalism. The French ruling class seem to have no trouble doing that for the Jews. Doing it for the Muslims might cause them to migrate back to their home countries taking their unborn and infant jihadis with them. She is the only candidate to oppose the slow national suicide of France and even if elected is likely to find her hands tied by the Chamber of Deputies. Either way it doesn’t look good.

  • Fat_Man

    An excellent summary of the depressing pass that France has reached. I am not sure that the US is in much better shape.

    • FriendlyGoat

      Well, OF COURSE the USA is not in “much better shape”. That’s why working people and evangelicals went batsh*t crazy here and voted for their own a$$es to be kicked for a generation, maybe two..

      • Fat_Man

        What I told the lady at the cheese counter today when I went to the supermarket: “No Goat”.

        • FriendlyGoat

          I hope you explained to her why and how goat gets your goat.

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