Arab Fall
Sisi Buying Time for Egypt’s Economy
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  • sh

    Given the tepid international response to Putin’s invasion of the Ukraine, together with acceptance of international action against ISIS, it seems obvious that Sisi will find the solution to some of his economic difficulties in foreign adventurism. Namely, an invasion of parts of Libya for the purposes of counterterrorism (likely legitimate) resulting in the Egyptian capture of some portion of the Libyan oil extraction industry. Sharing part of the wealth with local tribes, he would still be able to keep substantial revenues. Even if they were only used to prop up funding for the armed forces (using a logic under which Libya would be paying for its protection from jihadists or something similar.) it would still amount to a substantial chunk of government spending.
    I imagine Egyptian Staff Officers have already drawn up plan for a seizure of Tobruk, the Amal and Augila oil fields and associated pipelines. Secondary plans would go out to Waha and Marsa el Brega. But would probably be slow to be activated, since that would likely require pacification of Benghazi. The only question I have is the timeline and what Sisi will need to feel confident of success and international acceptance. Maybe a complete European cave to Putin on Ukraine?

    • rheddles

      Or a few more beheadings.

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