Kiev's Future
Ukraine’s Economy Is in Meltdown
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  • lukelea

    So will Western meddling turn out to be as big a disaster as in Libya?

  • Antipodeane

    The lose-lose logic of confrontation for all has been now been well demonstrated. It is Ukraine tearing itself apart as Henry Kissinger anticipated in the Washington Post last March 14 (http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/henry-kissinger-to-settle-the-

    ukraine-crisis-start-at-the-end/2014/03/05/46dad868-a496-11e3-8466-

    d34c451760b9_story.html).

    Now it would pay to look very seriously at mapping out a future that can work for all such as he proposed: that is, for Ukraine to develop as a bridge between East and West, between Europe (the EU) and the newly emerging Silk Route(s). In other words, as a neutral buffer to play leading trade-facilitation and even diplomatic roles at the cross-roads of an emergent Eurasia.

    While it took hundreds of years for Europeans to learn how they needed to cooperate together in the EU, there is not the time to do that with respect to Eurasia given the terribly destructive weaponry that is now available. We have already had two too many “hot” world wars, and one too many cold wars to want to repeat any of these.

    I believe there are also other important lessons to learn, such as how not to get bound up in strait-jacketing bureaucracies, whether public or private or both. It could be important , for instance, to explore how social media can support new forms of economic and social participation. The new generation in particular expects as much.

    The forthcoming Minsk Eurasian Conference could provide the perfect context, with the relevant people present, for all concerned to come together to begin defining and moving towards a future that can work for all.

    Is this too optimistic? Given the manifest pain for all with the present trajectory, I hope not!

    • Dave Ralph

      I think this a bad proposal as it effectively cedes Ukraine to the Russian sphere of influence. The best solution is a re-drawing of the borders to exclude the Donbass provinces, and then moving full ahead to integrate the rest of Ukraine firmly into the West. This is outcome that Putin is trying to avoid and he is using the Donbass as a leash to hold Kiev back from the West. Cut the dead weight of the Donbass loose and Putin loses his ability to influence Kiev.

  • JT

    Is Ukraine broke? You bet. But the West has to understand that the war won’t just go away if the country collapses and Russia takes over – Ukrainians will continue to fight a guerrilla war. Imagine an enormous Chechnya on the EU borders. Do you really want that to happen? I bet the answer is no. Neither do the Ukrainians, who are fighting for their country, invaded by a large, formidable foe. A foe dangerous and belligerent enough to take the war to the West, if it so desires. Stop him now, when he is weak; build up Ukraine like the US did to the Western Europe and Japan after WWII – make it your bulwark. Long-term, such a move would benefit not only Ukraine, but the entire Europe, and likely the world.

  • Dave Ralph

    Good points here. Nobody has the guts to say straight out that Ukraine’s territorial integrity is a farce and that the country is unsustainable in its current borders. Continued military efforts to try to recapture Donetsk and Lugansk are going to destroy the entire nation’s economy. Obama and Merkel need to shove reality down Poroshenko’s throat: either give up the Donbass war, or lose everything east of Lviv. The diversion to the military of IMF funds meant for economic reforms is particularly egregious. The IMF should cut off the funding so that Poroshenko gets the message loud and clear.

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