It’s time to start thinking strategically about how to deal with Vladimir Putin in a post-Crimea world.
That this situation is a surprise, unexpected, a moral outrage, et al. is an indication of an ideological worldview rather than one tethered to the historical record.The people who expect their favorite ideology to trump reality will disappointed and puzzled.
What we “need” to do, and what we can and will do, are two very different things. Europe is weak, divided and leaderless, just as your essay states. The US is preoccupied with more important issues such as free contraceptives for the Sandra Flukes of the world. The left has always believed that the real problem in world affairs is American belligerence and now they have a president who agrees. He is busy dismantling our military and issuing occasional, laughable, empty threats.
The west will do nothing.
Well we could raise money for the Ukrainian Army here in the US. Just because the president is an ass doesn’t mean the American People have to do nothing.
Putin and the rest of the world’s tyrants surely can’t believe their luck at getting Obama. We’d be in worse shape, but they clearly have been stunned motionless in disbelief that we would put someone like Obama in the White House. It couldn’t last. Putin finally figured out that Obama wasn’t a trick of some kind and decided to make his moves. The rest of the tyrants won’t be far behind.
Don’t bother. What happens now in Ukraine is a result of a deal between the US and Russia: “we get Western Ukraine, you get the rest”. The rhetoric is just smoke and mirrors.
Obama is following Europe’s lead, emasculating the country for the sake of a bloated welfare state. The only thing that will help is to reverse this trend.
The simple fact is that Putin has demonstrated the abject failure of Eurosocialism. What “every other industrialized country has done” is destroy its own capacity to defend itself.
Raising taxes to turn this around is ludicrous. Every NATO country will have to pitch in and help. Can France raise taxes? Didn’t Mead himself point out that Hollande’s plans to raise taxes were impossible? How about the rest of the countries of the EU?
No, the only solution is to cut excessive social spending — to finally admit to ourselves that National governments cannot be responsible for everything the Left believes they must be responsible for.
The center must move Rightward. Europe has to admit that its philosophy has failed, and instead of the Leftists of America pushing us to become more European, Europe needs to become more American — privatizing health care would be the obvious place to start.
A magisterial exposition! Just a couple of points: “Putin’s dramatic move into Crimea . . .” overstates the case, as does “Naked Russian aggression in Ukraine “. Putin did not invade Crimea: he had more than enough military presence there at the invitation of the Ukrainian government to give the Autonomous Republic cover to vote for annexation. The subsequent pro-Russian activities elsewhere in Ukraine lack both legal and Russian military cover. Changing their status would actually require an invasion, which might happen, but appears to me to be unlikely. It’s much more likely that Putin is hoping the the threat of invasion will, as it appears to be doing, cause the Ukraine government to grant the east more autonomy. Secondly, I assume that “. . . . , but Ukraine never requested much less obtained membership in NATO.” needs some context. Ukraine was ineligible for membership in NATO as long a Crimea, with its significant Russian military presence, was part of the country. The fact that Ukraine didn’t accept the (obviously fait accompli) annexation and immediately apply for membership is as inexplicable as the recent plea for a UN peacekeeping force (which requires Security Council approval).
Well stated comrad.
Eric Posner, an outstanding political analyst and not someone who can
be characterized as a naive Jeffersonian, does not believe that we should
be overly concerned about Russia’s actions in Ukraine.
“Putin’s annexation of Crimea gave him a short-term political boost at
home that will eventually dissipate. In the long term, Russia gains
nothing from the annexation but an arid peninsula of no economic or
military importance, and the distrust of its neighbors. Putin’s foolish
move will be its own punishment.”
“Putin’s foolish move will be its own punishment.” You could just add that “Putin is on the wrong side of history”, so need to worry less do anything. Just sit back and relax watching “regional power” self-inflicted destruction. History itself will take care of Putin, right?
” ….and more US troops in places like Estonia and Romania.
Oh sure. Use american kids as a trip wire. And note: Mead called for America troops to be place in these inconsequential countries. Why not German and French and British troops? Let the EU lead the parade instead of being just token decorations on military efforts. And if the EU can or won’t do it, then it is not worth doing.
You may have a point there, but it does not necessarily involve troops on the ground. France and the UK have missiles and can help install such in Poland, Czech, Lithuania, Estonia,etc. It does not have to be the US all the time. If nothing else there is more of an affinity between these countries than between them and the US. After all they are Europe and have a more direct interest in what is now a Putin challenge or provocation.
Because the world is how we find it, not how we want it. They wont go unless we do, perhaps not even then. Holding our breath and stomping our feet at European intransigence would be a full time job.
Unfortunately Estonia is a NATO member, and your advice is for the U.S. of A. to abrogate it’s NATO responsibilities. Thus, you directly advocate the destruction of NATO as a defensive alliance.
Somehow I doubt the Estonia Army can handle the Russian Army on it’s own. Or the French, or the Hungarians, or the Brits……….
Somehow destroying the only force that can check Russian aggression doesn’t seem like progress.
Your bad !
The failure to honor the obligations assumed in the Budapest Memorandum may be weighing on the Baltic States. I agree that we should defend NATO members, but am not sure that we would.
I began convinced that economic sanctions were the answer. The more I learn about the direction of credit flow (EU debt to Russia) and the utter simplicity and robustness of the single commodity Russian economy, the more I realize how little leverage the West has.
The EU is only going to shoot themselves in the foot (then freeze in the dark) with an embargo or economic sanctions. In a non-trivial, 2008 crash sort of way. I’m starting to think it may actually be cheaper and even safer to position deterrent forces and bolster local militias. Difficult to wrap my head around. The opposite of normal risk mitigation strategy.
Aside – I’m also actively tweaked at those initial, ” oh, Russia’s economically weak” articles.
“Thus, you directly advocate the destruction of NATO as a defensive alliance.”
NATO stopped being a defensive alliance when 1) the USSR disintegrated and 2) NATO moved into countries in Russia’s comfort zone. If you find the second point hard to grasp, tell us how you’d feel if Mexico became a member of the Warsaw pact back in the cold war days.
“Somehow I doubt the Estonia Army can handle the Russian Army on it’s own. Or the French, or the Hungarians, or the Brits……….”
Let’s let them try at least.
And because others can’t or won’t does not mean we have to.
That Europe is “weak, divided and leaderless” is nothing new. During my lifetime the only “leaders” were Hitler and Stalin. If one defines Europe as territory between the Urals and Greenland, then Putin is the current leader of the geographical Europe. However, in times of real and direct crises Europe always managed to somehow bring forth a true leader, eg. Churchill as an example. IMHO if Germany somehow either decreases or abolishes its dependence on Russian natural gas and trade, that may be the turning point as Merkel will emerge as the new “Iron Lady.”
Um, Winnie? Charlie (de G)? Maggie?
Winnie for sure. Charlie only with a small “c”, Maggie for sure as Hail Brittania!!
Here is the problem as I see it. Obama and other Western leaders can’t follow the advice in this article and say nothing. They won’t do anything from a NATO or military standpoint until Russia ups the ante a lot. Neither will they make the case for intervention to the American people (or in the EU for that matter). But they can’t not say anything or they will look weak to their own people. So they speak loudly and carry no stick. This is what American’s want. They want symbols, but do not want to actually do anything. They will continue to do this until (or if) Russia invades the Baltics. If this happens the sleeping tiger will awaken (not the politicians, but the people in America at least).
I have never seen an administration like Obama’s that is so weak and the media is an excuse making engine for him. Ultimately it is the people and the media that allow this president to essentially abandon actual important foreign policy decisions and outsource them to dictators like Putin. It is very strange. Prof. Mead’s recommendations are right on, but they will be ignored because Obama pays no price for ignoring them. Please someone tell me I am wrong!
One more item. As even Dr. Mead points out, German energy policy is a dismal failure but a vast majority of them still want to go full bore into their fantasy green future. There is no way that Germans will abandon their green fantasy and there is no way Europe is going to get off of Putin’s cocaine oil and gas. It isn’t going to happen. Europeans live in a fantasy land and the question is are we going to join them in their fantasy. As a Californian it looks from where I stand that we are headed down the rabbit hole. One can only imagine what China and Iran are thinking at this point.
Well, the US is just warming up preparing its strong response, Here’s from the Wall Street Journal:
U.S. Tries to Help Ukraine, Reassure Allies Without Riling Russia
By ADAM ENTOUS And JULIAN E. BARNES, April 11, 2014
Ukrainian forces got the MREs late last month, about two weeks after requesting aid. The White House says it is still reviewing other items on Kiev’s wish-list, including medical kits, uniforms, boots and military socks.
“You want to calibrate your chest-thumps,” a senior military official said of the step-by-step American response to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s military moves. “He does something else in Ukraine, we release the socks.”
That’s actually *not* an Onion article?
I first thought so, but it did appear in WSJ — see the link.
Our next question ought to be if Poland is a state more like Germany or more like Ukraine. Its not a simple answer.
Chris Matthews and Dana Millbank have said Putin is obviously a racist or he would not do this to Obama.
Ha Ha what a laugh. Raise taxes to fund our already gigantic military to put more American troops in Europe. Bi partisan, Ha Ha Ha. Better we take our new immigrants and train them for warfare in Europe and if they survive let them pay a fine and wait 10 years to become a citizen anywhere they want in Europe.
Not sure if it’s still the case, but joining the military used to confer citizenship. What a great way to solve the illegal immigrant problem.
While intriguing, the column posits no reason other than legacy for further American intervention in a continent that cannot stop warring with itself. Yes, the West is much like that described by Churchill in The Gathering Storm, and, yes, all the points made by Dr Mead are true. But… At the very core of any civilization are its citizens, and not ONE european country, not even Russia, has been making enough more of them to survive. Why, realistically, should America invest lives and treasure, why should Americans lower their standard of living, yet again, to support and/or save a continent none of whose people believe in their future enough to populate it? To what end would we make such an investment? Logically, within two-three generations there will BE no “europeans;” that is how low their fertility has become. So, again, WHAT sense does it make to “save” a people voluntarily making themselves extinct?
cause we need customers, rivals, allies, and a modicum of stability?
But if they aren’t going to be there in a few generations – and they aren’t – why sacrifice our generations to “save” them? From what? From themselves?
Ideally, we could save them from despair — demonstrate that there are in fact ways to organize the body politic that will allow them to defend themselves and survive as a culture into the future.
How cynical are we feeling?
The article is idealistic. Your post is nonsense, I’m sorry. Demographic contraction is an interesting fact of life for Europe (some parts more than others), but as a justification for American isolationism? wtf? That’s just silly. I mean, there’s no causal link.
Whether the USA should involve itself in Europe’s affairs is a complex question. I’m not sure what the answer is, but I don’t see how it has anything to do with their rate of reproduction.
Edit: checked your other posts, I don’t understand, you’re not a crackpot. Partner, how does Europe’s average family size factor in to our foreign policy? Puzzled.
If we can predict that Europe’s values and priorities will change to be utterly unrecognizable in the next twenty years (and, very likely align with parts of the world with which we are having severe problems), our long-term plans should reflect that.
Unless we can convince Europe to defend itself and reproduce itself, our strategic priorities should be to determine how to deal effectively with the world that actually will be. That means rearranging our allocation of scarce resources.
Nice article, pretty much right, but your solutions have a snowball’s chance in hell of happening- welcome to the USSR, bitch!
When will Europe defend Europe?
Call it Karma. The new Ukraine (non) government are crying over something that put them into power. What goes around comes around
Great analysis but it is not realistic.
What is Obama going to actually do?
Go down to a union hall and give a speech telling Putin that “he’s gotta sit in back”?
All Obama is good for is passing out “free stuff” to his supporters and attacking and insulting everyone that does not agree with him.
(And, no, Obama is actually not good at golf!)
i was reading intently until I got to the ‘regime change” in Russia. The arrogance of my countrymen knows no bounds.
For the most part, spot on.
Some things I see as overly optimistic:
“Even anti-tax Republicans in Congress should agree to raise new revenues to cover these costs;”. I don’t doubt that it is possible to get Republicans in Congress to raise taxes to cover the expenses of NATO activity, but I don’t think they could raise the taxes quickly enough to cover both the NATO activity and increased social spending that would be required by the Senate to allow funding the NATO activity.
“It is also worth remembering the role that Ronald Reagan’s high tech military buildup played in bringing the Soviet leaders of the 1980s down to earth. The United States has the ability to deprive Russia’s nuclear arsenal of much of its utility through improved missile defense and the development of other high tech weapons and systems.” It is worth remembering, but we no longer live in that world. Remember we have been developing 2 things since the Reagan era – bankers and lawyers. They are the current “weapons” we are committed to and neither is particularly interested in protecting the country. Close observation of this is part of the reason for Russian confidence.
Last thing: the best weapon we can have in this conflict is openness – which we are currently throwing away on both sides of the Atlantic. In Europe, they have unilaterally disarmed and are focused on minimizing democratic input in government via the EU. In the US we have complete regulatory capture by the financial industry, again minimizing democratic input. If our elite doesn’t start to balance their constant power grabs with some actual governing we really won’t have anything left to defend. That is the proper defense against some of these “Dark Arts”.
Overall, a pretty well written article. But I would add a different perspective. Not every fight is our fight. The Ukraine/Russia situation is very
complicated and does not come close to fitting the simple Ukraine is
good, Russia is bad narrative that is usually fed to us. Half of
Ukraine wants to lean West, and the Eastern and Southern parts where
there is heavy industry and their primary market for goods is Russia,
wants to lean east. So far, Ukraine has alternated every election cycle between
pro-Western leaders and Pro-Russian leaders. The problem is that all
of their leaders (pro-Western and pro-Russian) have been absolutely
corrupt, and have been stealing the country blind.
Russia is primarily
involved because it is too “close to home”, and because their navy fleet
is based in Crimea – and they do not feel safe with the very anti-Russia
government which just took over (ousting the duly elected, but very corrupt,
president of Ukraine). Two quick points. 1) Ukraine is a lot more
important to Russia than it is to us (just like Mexico is a lot more
important to us than it is to Russia). This one is not our fight. 2)
The new Ukrainian government has cleverly positioned themselves as
needing protection form the West against the big bad bear – Russia.
What they really want is someone to pay off the $40 Billion of debt that
they have managed run up in the last decade – and yes, we the west – will end
up being the suckers who foot the bill.
Something sensible at last. All the hand-wringing and war-mongering in the article and the comments don’t change the fact that Putin is merely trying to restore some shred of Russia’s buffer space and sphere of influence. Of course, sphere of influence is an outmoded concept now that Russia’s is gone and the US sphere of influence encompasses almost the whole world — according to Prof. Meade, we have to steer all events in the Pacific, the Middle East AND Europe. And again of course this is because our values are better than Russia’s, notwithstanding our stellar record in imposing brutal dictatorships for generations in Latin America, Egypt, Iran, and myriad other places.
The hawks should simmer down. Not every tinpot crisis is a Munich. Draw a NATO red line in the Baltic republics and stick to it, for real, period, no ifs, ands or buts. We can all agree on that. Help Europe meet its energy shortfall, which makes it vulnerable to Putin, with our growing reserves of natural gas. And then let Russia’s sick economy and its over-reliance on the shrinking role of its oil in the world eat away at it from within.
Interesting analysis, but short on a reality check. Despite its economic and military resources (with the exception of the U.K.), Europe has neither the leadership nor will to defend itself, much less other states like the Ukraine. If there is a leader in Europe he or she has been well hidden. Europe will do well to cope with the influx of Muslim immigrants and the rising Sharia law issues, much less deal with Russia.
The United States is little better from a leadership perspective and is faced with issues in Asia as well as with Russia and the Middle East. We will have to choose where our national interest lie, as well as which allies are essential and reliable. We have already squandered world respect as well as instilling a lack of confidence in our tradition allies, and that is not likely to begin to be regained until the current administration is out of office.
brak gonna be sho dis putin sum leson
The idea of going to war to control who rules eastern europe was a bad idea the first time it was tried.
“Whatever the ultimate outcome of Vladimir Putin’s Crimean Gambit…it reminds us that the United States still has some unfinished business in Europe….At the military level, the United States now has its weakest military presence in Europe since the 1940s….Policy must always begin with facts…the West has a Russia problem…. Appeasing Putin won’t work; opposing him is going to be difficult and expensive, but ignoring him will be impossible.”
WRM, what are you asking for – strengthening NATO; Increase military presence in Europe (NATO countries); hard power politics supplementing soft power back channels; full EU foreign policy engagement reminiscent of post World War II with U.S. doing heavy lifting – and are we prepared to sustain and afford such an undertaking? Your essay WRM brings to mind importance of geography (starting point for understanding everything else). Recognizing that one Vladimir Putin may be motivated by geopolitical interests (space and power) inter alia, can U.S. strategically pivot towards Russia (Europe) for purpose of “containment” given our current domestic and global responsibilities (not to mention politico-socio arrangements). The narrative you write calls for foreign policy strategy vis-a-vis Russia that is “imperial like” but can we (world) afford not to engage.
I think we need to make a distinction here.
Avoiding entanglements is NOT equivalent to abandoning commitments.
I’m a libertarian, as are seemingly a high percentage of other posters here, fine, that’s good to see. We’re a touch isolationist and also skeptical of our current administration’s ability to make good decisions on foreign policy. Consequently there’s an understandable element of unreality to articles like this one.
But we need to guard against rationalizing actions we know aren’t honorable, just because they seem inevitable.
Another clever neoconservative chicken hawk journalist egging us on, like they did with Iraq, Libya, Syria, and want to do with Iran, Russia, etc. Enough. How many times are we going to be neo-conned?
Instead, let us attend to our own borders, which are a joke, as millions of unauthorized
people invade us; and let us focus on our other problems since we have a 17
trillion debt and growing, and our inner cities are terrorized by a series of
urban underclass gangs numbering in the
mugging, trafficking in drugs, hooking teenage women into drugs and
then prostituting them in vast sexual trafficking rings, stealing, vandalizing, graffiti writing, etc. . In Chicago alone, the Vice Lords gang, just one gang,
numbers 70000 according to the Chicago Crime Commission. We don’t talk about all this?
most recent feats of foreign meddling to
“help human rights” and secure “freedom” and “punish tyrants” include bombing
Libya (on BO’s orders and with complete GOP and Democratic Establishment
backing) a country that had not attacked us or threatened to attack us, deposing
its ruler, and causing a terrible chaos that has led to the burning of our
in Benghazi and the killing of an ambassador and other Americans and to the
filtering of weapons to Islamists in Lybia as well as Mali and other African nations. Great success.
In Iraq, on Bush
Jr.’s orders and with complete GOP backing, we bombed and invaded a country
that had not attacked us or threatened to attack us and deposed another guy and
created a similar ongoing chaos that has resulted in the destruction of the
Christian population of Iraq. We are doing the
Syria, a country that has not attacked us or threatened to attack
supporting the Islamists (on BO’s orders and with almost complete GOP
and Democratic Establishment backing), who are destroying the Christian
population there too, with our help. In Serbia, on Bill the Sexual Predator
Clinton’s orders and the backing of the entire GOP and Democratic
Establishment, we bombed to smithereens a nation
had not attacked us and approved a referendum that gave independence to
now a Muslim state in the midst of Europe, from Serbia, a Christian
nation, to which it had belonged for centuries. Now we dont like a referendum
in Crimea. And now, under BO, again with almost total GOP and Democratic Party
support, we want to “punish” Russia, a country that has not attacked
us or threatened to attack us. Give us a break. Enough
Well, hey let’s just let Russia have the world! History proves that isolationism does’nt prevent wars, it provides the environment for world wars. But I guess that’s not the history you’re interested in…
Nearly as I can tell this gentleman cut-and-paste’s the same post on every discussion thread.
Perhaps after more than a century it is time to face up to the reality that our political and military as well as our commercial interests are tangled up in Europe for the long run and that we must manage our engagement more effectively and actively than we’ve done for some time.
Why? What strategic interests do we have in Europe? If the Europeans themselves are unwilling to defend themselves – they typically spend half as much as as the US in percentage of GDP – why is it that we should defend them?
The EU has a population of 500 million vs. the US’s 330 million. The EU has a GDP of US$17 trillion vs. the US’s 16.8 trillion. They’re both bigger and richer than us…why is it that we have to fight their wars?
That same question was asked in the 1930’s. Let’s see, if we allowed Russia to invade Europe do you think that would be a good idea? I guess you would have been an “appeaser” in the 30’s. Sure, let’s just let our allies fall to our enemies…
Again, Europe is richer and more populous than the US. Why not have their 18 – 30-year-old men dying on the front line? Why not have them crank up their defense spending? Why should it only fall on our shoulders? Germany is the richest and most populous EU country, and the majority of their citizens wouldn’t lift a finger if Putin invaded Eastern Ukraine:
The Forsa poll for magazine Stern found 50 percent of respondents were against greater Nato engagement in eastern Europe and 42 percent were in favour.
A clear majority were also against a military escalation of the conflict with 77 percent rejecting Nato intervention – even if Russian troops invaded eastern Ukraine.
9 Apr 2014
The Forsa poll for magazine Stern found 50 percent of respondents were against greater Nato engagement in eastern Europe and 42 percent were in favour.
A clear majority were also against a military escalation of the conflict with 77 percent rejecting Nato intervention – even if Russian troops invaded eastern Ukraine.
9 Apr 2014
Why should we lift a finger if they’re not willing to put their asses on the line? The US lost 180,000 men in the European Theatre in WWII, 120,000 in WWI…and you think we should go bail out their lazy asses again? For what? So the idiot, EU-PC lefties can continue to call us war mongers?
Never again. They either rearm or start teaching Russian as a second language.
your analysis does not address the treaty obligations to Ukraine the US and others assumed in the 1990s in exchange for Ukraine giving up its nuclear arsenal. I know this administration doesn’t believe it is bound by treaties entered, or for that matter laws enacted, before it came to power, but the failure of the US to make some attempt to fulfill its treaty obligations will not go unnoticed by Russia and every other predatory power.
Since Putin denies that there are any Russian troops in the Ukraine, assisting the Ukrainian government with arms to allow it to put down the Russian sponsored hooligans in various cities in Eastern Ukraine cannot be construed by Russia as an attack on its military. At some point, we will have to stand up to Putin. The sooner, the better.
President Gelding use the military? Not bloody likely. And spend money on the military he could use to upgrade the Obamaphones of the people who actually keep him and the Democrats in power? Yeah, that’ll happen.
Reagan and Bush I faced down the Evil Empire with strength, and watched it collapse. Obama has been in office less than 6 years, but his weakness, ineptness, and absolute INCOMPETENCE is resulting in Putin starting to reassemble the Evil Empire. Its mind boggling how Obama could let this happen after so much blood, sweat, and treasure was spent by so many President, but we are watching it nightly on TV. Putin has Obama’s number. He knows the U.S. has cursed itself with the weakest, most inept, and INCOMPETENT President in our history. One that makes Jimmy Carter look like Superman. Putin has Obama’s number, and its so coincidence that every time he speaks to Obama the next day he starts moving his forces to grab another piece of Ukraine. If the rest of our Government was smart they wouldn’t allow Obama to speak or ever get anywhere near our foolish pathetic President. Putin can no doubt sense the weakness and INCOMPETENCE and meeting or speaking to Obama only encourage him. Fat chance that Obama will stop gutting our military or our economy. He is stuck on his ideology and stupidity no matter how badly it fails. If I were the President of Poland, or any other former country in the former Warsaw pact I would be working all out to get some nukes. Without those its only a matter of time before Putin is knocking on their doors again. Obama is going to do anything except make Putin laugh.
The Roman “Publius Flavius Vegetius Renatus” gave us the quote “If you would have peace, prepare for war”! Neville Obama’s policies of decline, weakness, and appeasement is proving to us a la Assad, a la Putin, just how true that quote is. Obama thinks his policies of gutting our military, craven weakness, and appeasement will “Give Us Peace in Our Time”! He will give us war. War for which we are totally unprepared because of him, and which we well could lose.
I want to see if and when Putin moves on Moldova, East Ukraine and the Baltic States if NATO will enforce Article 5. Obama will pass the football to NATO to deflect any criticism of his weak foreign policy. His attitude that we need to be taken down a notch or two will prove fatal to these countries. The EU has no military or no stomach for confronting Putin. History repeats itself, welcome back to the 1930’s.
A strong Russia is very important to the world peace, yet this doesn’t mean to expand its borders on behalf of self determination or independence of other populations. The expansion of Nato east at the time, was a good move as it controlled a fluid situation which resulted from the dismemberment of the soviet union. There was no intention in NATO to use this against Russia at any time, and the US decision to stop antimissile deployment in Poland is a clear signal. In any case what seems to me rational is what the US and Ukraine must not do, and that is to engage in any military action ( the airport control by UKRAINE special forces action can be considered as affirming an intention to stand firm rather than a military engagement). The US response should be pondered, incremental and mixed ( diplomatic,
expanding sanctions to utilities and diversifying this where it can hurt , and military deployments 2 f22 in warsaw, drones in estonia and some special laser canons in lithuania ) yet without any military fire. The
Ukrainian riposte needs to concentrate on deploying military resources
along the virtual line from Kharkov to SIMFEROPOL in Crimea , and
UKRAINE to propose that eastern to this line, there is a reasonable zone of
influence for Russia , where major autonomy will be authorized, and that
can be agreed upon tomorrow during the meeting between the Russian and
Ukrainian foreign ministers in respect of the collectivity and the
nation/state sovereignty and legality . The main objective should be in any case to
hold presidential elections and to stabilize the UKRAINE, although the civil war can be a tempting scenario, draining Russian hard reserves. For this
purpose of stability , the EU must flood the UKRAINIAN market with low cost goods of
all types and create a major zona franca where all consumption items can
be retrieved at very low prices, and this will induce a movement of
citizens from east to west and an exchange between communities. Kiev
must do all possible to maintain a semblance of peace and happenings,
and to generate an image of control, even if the east is shaking very
badly and Putin’s athletes are already in Tiraspol and circumventing
with their military movements Odessa and creating immense pressure on
the west Ukraine to cede under threats and arrogance. Putin is doing
what he can to bring back all Ukraine to his Orbit, the game is not to
let him have this back , yet it has to be done with style, without fire. It is a dance with the devil, where the devil will do all possible for the ballerina to lose control and be seduced by him, while she must master her moves and be vigilant. So Ukraine should deploy
military assets in Odessa and along the virtual line mentioned to create a buffer
security and to get to round 3 or 4 at least and then to control the breath and make extra time in the dance. UKRAINE needs to talk about
presidential elections and widen the horizon of the population rather
than get involved in the provocations of the Russian secret services.
Creativity is on demand, as much as traditional deployment of muscles.
At the end Putin will not rest until he will grasp all UKRAINE, and the
free citizens should defend their liberty by resorting to innovation, and by maintaining control of the land . Of course big oil, the
financial masters of the universe, other vested interests will see in
all this a great opportunity in the game of the nations to widen the
market from Lisbon to China as per existing rules, especially now that
Beijing is under an immense economic strain, and its president is
looking to become a space super power, more than to sponsor free
municipal elections. There is a Chinese prism to be looked at where the
base is social and the angles are historical, to represent small
government of the elites, and this is per se’ acceptable, what is
unknown is the model of Russian bravados where the system is ruled by a
militia mentality accepting the Westphalia concept only for its own
geopolitical interests. The end game of Russia is much blur to me, how
this country will evolve with high male mortality , no free flow of
ideas and an oil oriented economy ? Is the Eurasian dream of Moscow a
possible reality , where an order similar to a Khanate will be instated ?
In any case the game is heating up and Moscow doesn’t feel low
temperature as usual. Putin ultimately by his actions is weakening Russia and acting against the main interest of world peace, which is to have a strong Russia. Hence he should be stopped .
The most obvious answer to Putin and Russia is their “simple, one commodity” economy.
If we had an Administration that would encourage gas and oil development (not to mention XL Pipeline), export of LNG etc… we could, in relatively short order, have a significant effect upon the oil and gas markets, robbing Putin/Russia (and Iran and the other petro-terror states) of vital cash. Reagan used a military buildup including the SDI to bankrupt the Soviets and win the Cold War. We have oil and gas. (And coal, too, actually, which could be used better for domestic and export consumption). The oil and gas fracking revolution is the single, greatest development in the U.S. in the last 10 years. It solves a host of problems for the U.S. both domestically and internationally if we would only embrace it. Employment, middle class jobs, energy costs, manufacturing, transportation, trading deficits, budget deficits… on and on.
Bottom line: oil and gas generate real, national wealth and power. With billions of dollars in energy wealth flooding into the Treasury, we can reverse the military cuts and start making sensible choices about reforming entitlements.
From the posts I’ve read, I gather that isolationism is alive and well here in America. While I can understand the impulse, I would like to remind those who share that view of the lessons of 20th century history. History has proven time and again that isolationism doesn’t prevent wars- it encourages them.
I am firmly opposed to intervening in Ukraine or the rest of Eastern Europe. In my view it is a European problem and Europeans should settle it.
I am not an isolationist. But, I believe that Europe should be close to the bottom of our priority list. Our priorities should include Central America and Caribbean, the Pacific Rim, and the Arctic.
We need to understand that NATO was a peculiar historic situation. In 1949 most of Central and Western Europe the extensive damage caused by the Wars had not repaired, the UK was bankrupt, and the Soviet Union had an enormous battle hardened army. They could have rolled up Central and Western Europe without too much difficulty, and we would have faced a much wealthier and larger global foe.
All of that has changed. Russia is not the Soviet Union, Europe is united, free, and wealthy. NATO, which was a shield in 1949, has been a crutch since 1989, which has allowed European states to neglect their own defense in favor of paying social welfare benefits.
NATO shouldn’t be strengthened, it should be dissolved. Europe has the resources to provide for its own defense. We should help them, especially by providing military technology (for a fair market price), but we should not be more deeply involved.
P.S. the Middle East should be the penultimate item on our priority list. We should limit our further involvement to carpet bombing. First Iran, then Pakistan.
I disagree. Europe is an important ally, I understand your criticism of Europe’s reliance on America’s military might but that doesn’t change the fact that Russia just invaded a soveriegn eastern european country. If we do nothing, what will Putin do next?
Europe is an important ally to whom and in what circumstance? Important trading partner, yes. ally. not so much.
It is like having an alcoholic relative. You can’t solve his problem for him. You can reflect to him that he has a problem, and you can give him a ride to his weekly meeting, but that is about it.
Would you let Putin invade your drunk uncle?
My uncle was born in Ukraine, but Ukraine is no kin of mine.
Ukraine’s non membership in NATO is not the only argument for the U.S. not to get involved in Russia’s undeclared war on its sovereign neighbor. The U.S. signed the Budapest Memorandum in 1994, along with the U.K. and Russia, to defend Ukraine against aggressors in exchange for Ukraine disposing of the world’s third largest nuclear arsenal. So, the U.S. by treaty, is in this crisis. No discussion, no questions, otherwise every other bit dictator in the world will learn to copy this aggressive tactic in his quest for nuclear weapons.
As we’re broke, we should pursue strategies that require as little of our resources as possible. My proposal:
– In Europe, let Germany re-arm itself to counter Russia.
– In Asia, let Japan re-arm itself to counter China.
– In the Middle East, let Israel do whatever it wants.
If war breaks out, we’ll wait for everyone else to exhaust themselves before we swoop in and pick up the pieces.
Yes, this strategy is not glorious, but it’s how we ascended to superpowerdom after WWII.
talking about reckless behavior by president putin you must have in mind that he could try an incursion in the western hemisphere like the intervention in cuba by the ussr that led to the missile crisis in the sixties. right now he could try a similar approach in association with venezuela where the chavista dictatorship would be a willing partner.the usa must take necessary measures to prevent that, including supporting colombian armed forces.another possible partners to putin could be nicaragua and cuba.
No fresh ideas. Many words repeating the same things which were written and said earlier…
While you admit that anti-Russian course of Clinton administration is a mistake, yet you advocate for even stronger anti-Russian course. And why you say US can work with Russia, but not Putin? He didn’t really say anything new today concerning Russia-US relations that he didn’t say back in 2007 on Munich Security Conference, before US announced a ‘reset’ policy on relations with Russia.
I believe one of the main reasons that Russia does not feel safe is forced export of “color revolutions” that the West funds. And coincidentally all those revolution attempts on ex-USSR territory are based on strong anti-Russian ideology.This policy essentially resulted in a short Russo-Georgian war and this crisis in Ukraine.
Sure, Russia may not have the standard of democracy the West wants it to have, but they believe they can deal with it on their own eventually. And lets be frank, US doesn’t have the golden receipe of transition to modern state for developing countries it pretends to have. Even within the developed West there are democratic countries that fully embrace liberal economic principles, while failing to create efficient and corruption-free governments. There is certainly more to being successful than democracy and Washington consensus. Hey, look at corruption and crime ridden Mexico on US borders – US has failed to help even it’s closest neighbor. Or perhaps that was never the plan?
As it seems now, Obama’s ‘reset’ policy was never about changing relations with Russia and respecting it’s strategic interests, it was merely about using public anti-war sentiment at home to stay in power. There is firm understanding in Russia and other ex-USSR countries both in establishment and the masses that the US pushes it’s agenda for it’s own benefit only. And if US ever decides to truly reformat it’s relations with Russia and countries de-facto in Russian sphere of influence it will have to be very convincing.
The future of American interests lies in Asia and Latin America. It’s high time we left Europe to its own devices. It’s long past the time we exited NATO. Maybe without the US to lean on the Europeans will rediscover their backbones. If not, it’s their funeral, not ours.