Is India Really On the Rise?
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  • Eric from Texas

    Perhaps India is at risk of falling into the “Middle Income Trap” that has ensnared so many developing countries.

  • Whether you attribute it to genes or environment human capital can be measured by PISA scores, which measure average academic achievement by country. By that measure India has low human capital. Everything else follows.

  • Oops. Here’s a link for India’s PISA score:

    http://tinyurl.com/7u9wecp

    And for a bunch of other countries:

    http://tinyurl.com/39y8khh

    You can make a lot of predictions based on these numbers. We need to pay more attention to them.

  • Dean Jackson

    Your first link leads to “page not found”.

  • Mrs. Davis

    Link did not work for me.

  • Mick The Reactionary

    @Luke Lea

    “Whether you attribute it to genes or environment human capital can be measured by PISA scores …
    By that measure India has low human capital.”

    Indians are not white. If PISA scores show that Indian human capital is low, it proves that PISA scores are rayssis and reading them is a crimethink.

  • Anthony

    “The discussions inside India about where the country is headed, what its relationship with the US and China should be, what kind of economic development policy works best: for better or worse, these are now discussions of world-political importance….”

    WRM, both hard power and soft power underlie bilateral trade and American foreign investment in India (over $50 billion and $16 billion respectively). Further in seeking security architecture in Asia, United States must consider India in any global context; least of all because contextually India has democracy, rule of law, pluralism, and free markets (in theory), etc. So, Sumit Ganguly in correctly citing institutional limits provides contextual perspective to U.S. Indian policy going forward – since fundamentally Ganguly issues a cautious warning to those extrapolating Indian socio-economic gains post Cold War as leading to Global Rise sans careful review of Indian cultural arrangements inside sub-continent.

  • Kris

    Regarding the Indian misgivings towards the US that you describe, I will take the opportunity to once again bring up the famous Bernard Lewis quote (which he attributed to a Turkish general): “The problem with having the Americans as your allies is that you never know when they’ll turn around and stab themselves in the back.”

  • Jacksonian Libertarian

    “The U.S. goal in Asia isn’t so much to contain China, but to avoid a need for containment altogether. Instead what we want is a peaceful and secure Asian system in which the interests, rights, security and prosperity of every state are safeguarded.”

    If this is indeed the State Department’s strategy, then they are a bunch of pacifist idiots. China is an aggressively expansionist bully, that is in boarder disputes with all of its neighbors. It claims the entire South China Sea a thousand miles from its shoreline. In China’s view the interests, rights, security and prosperity of its neighbors are of no interest, and it intends to take whatever it can.

    America’s best strategy is to unify those neighbors into an anti-China alliance, and put a stop to China’s belligerence (it won’t be easy). India as the most populous Democracy should be the Western Anchor of the Alliance with America as the Eastern Anchor. With China as the antagonist America should be able to hammer out a Defense Alliance similar to NATO. This would bring the entire region into close association with the US, with the resultant free trade agreements, military exercises, and increased American Cultural penetration. There is no reason why India and the other nations in the region couldn’t produce all the products now being made in China, and preferential trading terms with America would help make it so. This really is an incredible opportunity for America and we should cease the moment. China is really doing us a favor, getting all these nations to join together would be like herding cats, if it wasn’t for China’s stupidity.

  • joe mack

    we have too many nukes
    let’s give some to strategic partners
    Australia, NZ (if they want them), Taiwan, Japan and India.
    and let China reconsider their policies
    and we can say it is all because of NKorea!
    and we don’t have the expense of their upkeep

    and our allies depend on us less

    maybe Germany and Poland would like a few?

  • thibaud

    “Via Meadia has underlined the bipartisan support in the U.S. for a tight relationship with India…”

    Just curious: why is it that when Mead is representing the nation to foreign (Asian, mainly) interlocutors, he adopts a realistic, calm and rational tone – cf the fair assessment of the Democratic administration and a Democratic-controlled Senate here – and then, when addressing his Jacksonian online audience, he abandons reason and reality and starts flinging know-nothing insults about “leftists” capturing the Democratic Party?

  • Atanu Maulik

    Half of India’s children are malnourished and are grossly underweight and stunted. 3000 die on average each day from effects of malnutrition. All the while thousands of tons of food grains rot or are eaten by rodents in storage as the Government panders to special interests. Just one example of monumental incompetence and corruption that characterizes the functioning of the Governments in India. Yet such stories do not make front page headlines. Because India’s rich elite do not care. Instead they indulge in ritualistic patriotic masturbation sessions. They get extremely worked up over the fact that Kohinoor still resides on the British crown and their heads explode when some Indian taxi driver gets stabbed in Australia or some B grade movie star gets frisked at an US airport. As long as those thugs and criminals continue to rule supported by India’s hypocrite elite there is no hope for India.

  • Atanu Maulik

    Half of India’s children are malnourished and are grossly underweight and stunted. 3000 die on average each day from effects of malnutrition. All the while thousands of tons of food grains either rot or are eaten by rodents in storage as the Government panders to special interests. Just one example of the monumental incompetence and corruption that characterizes the functioning of the government in India. Yet such stories do not make front page headlines. Because India’s rich elite do not care. Instead they indulge in ritualistic patriotic masturbation sessions. They get extremely worked up over the fact that Kohinoor still resides on the British crown, their heads explode when some Indian taxi driver gets stabbed in Australia or some B grade movie star gets frisked at an US airport. As long as those thugs and criminals continue to rule supported by India’s hypocrite elite there is no hope for India.

  • Swraj Joshi

    India is a developing country, it would need its lessons before it matures and improves quality of life for its people. We may not have figured out good food supply chain but managed to built a space program on its own. It’s very simple, India is huge. She has many dimensions and personalities. Just have patience she will prove herself.

    USA is driven by its national interest which right now are being threatened by China. Hence, the focus on Pacific. The reason, India is scepticle in being an US ally per se is that the decisions in US change quite frequently. Just few years back Afganistan and Iraq were the n thing but now it’s pacific. About 3 decades ago China was chosen over India by Nixon. The appeasement policy that followed pushed us into Soviet embrace. The nations as old as India draw from their experience. It’s going to take some work from US before India joins the camp.

    I would like to see a little more facts in such articles than just opinions.

    Thanks!.

  • thibaud

    “I would like to see a little more facts in such articles than just opinions.”

    You speak for many of us, Swraj.

    Mr. Mead has good days and bad days: some of his posts are balanced, thoughtful and fact-based; others are nothing more than wishful thinking.

    If his online output were a traded security, $MEAD would be a “high beta” stock.

  • Kris

    [email protected]: “About 3 decades ago China was chosen over India by Nixon. The appeasement policy that followed pushed us into Soviet embrace. … I would like to see a little more facts in such articles than just opinions.”

    Facts such as Nixon’s China policy being long preceded by Nehru’s non-alignment policy and India’s close relationship with the USSR?

  • Mick The Reactionary

    @Swraj Joshi

    “About 3 decades ago China was chosen over India by Nixon.”

    Historically totally wrong. India was Soviet’s friend with benefits virtually from its independence.

    India was a crown star in KGB created and payed for Un-alignment movement.

    For a person who asks for hard fact, a good idea, it would help to do a little googling himself.

  • http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/opinion/edit-page/Hand-over-the-baton/articleshow/14782539.cms
    We have five important ministries headed by super-aged men whose fatigue shows up in many of their actions.

    We have a prime minister who is incapacitated, a defence minister who does not know how to deal with the military leadership, a foreign minister who several minutes into his speech at the United Nations discovers that he is reading what was meant for his Portuguese counterpart and a home minister who sends a wrong list of terrorists to a neighbouring country and thinks that kind of embarrassment is no big deal. The mismanagement of the economy by an 80-something finance minister who is now the UPA presidential candidate is well documented and needs no further pondering.

    The opposition fares no better in encouraging leaders who are in the demographic dividend age group to don the leadership mantle. We thus have the main opposition party whose leader’s ambition for becoming prime minister at 83 years of age is well known. The communist parties too are led by Independence era leaders in the two states in which they have an impact on politics – Kerala and West Bengal. And most of the regional parties are headed by patriarchs who are woefully out of touch with the current generation.

    The Bell Tolls for India’s Congress Party
    http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/the-bell-tolls-for-india-s-congress-party

  • Muntasir

    One particular aspect is missing. India, unlike US…and unlike China… Is a ‘community(~ies)-driven-country’. It is a country of countries where each part survives independently of the other (mostly) but form a robust alliance so long as questions of a comprehensive national identity are concerned. This country operates at a low-level-equilibrium trap (LLET), something i am trying to popularize as a ”term”, and where much of its subsistence economic activities go entirely unreported/under-estimated. It’s dependence on foreign trade is not for basic survival and very well survive with a slightly better market system on its own.
    In spite of all its leadership flaws, this country is inherently super-strong. Its strong value-based (in spite of its cast/religious dogmas and ironies) social architecture gives it a unique life-support system – which has survived for a few millennia and which will continue to survive for a few more.
    @luke-lea: knowledge and technical skills are not a substitute for wisdom. Wisdom comes with ”knowing” and not only ”achieving certificates from institutions”.
    Lackings? Plenty. But primarily governence. After all, it’s only sixty years that they got rid of an alien blood-sucker and its only sixty years that they had …so far… To rid themselves of an alien administrative infrastructure.
    Future? Bright. Much brighter than ever before. Confident.

  • http://www.globalasia.org/V7N2_Summer_2012/Daniel_M_Kliman.html?PHPSESSID=5f1ee669b40998ebe465f9b5d200bcaf
    If India decides to fully cast off old frames of reference with regard to the West and the rest, it can attain a level of influence that China, with its current political system, will never equal. India has yet to make this choice.

    Its foreign policy retains at least three distinct and sometimes conflicting elements: a growing globalism, a residual desire for autarky and a sense of commonality with other emerging powers.

    India’s position in world affairs can remain mixed for only so long. As its rise accelerates and its influence expands, a decisive choice will become inescapable.

    It would be a shame if India squanders this opportunity.

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