A 4th of July for the UK?
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  • While it would cause serious disruptions, I think Britain leaving the EU would be for the best.As you say, they’ve never been a good fit, and the EU now is little more than a bureaucratic dictatorship. The UK would do best to get out, repatriate its sovereignty, and negotiate some sort of trade arrangement with the Continent similar to what the members of EFTA have.

  • MarkE

    A closer union between Britain and the Continent isn’t likely to happen until their beliefs are more similar. France and a lot of the Continent seem to be of the “egalite, liberte, and fraternite” frame-of-mind. The British are more like us being of the life, liberty, and pursuit of happiness frame-of-mind. At least they have the belief in liberty in common.
    Given the historical evidence, the Continent would probably do better to move toward Britain’s beliefs.

  • Paul Graham

    I am afraid that a UK exit from Europe is far from being a low probability scenario.

    For many years the polling has consistently suggested that a referendum, if offered, would result in exit. That was the popular choice, but it was not the preference of the educated elites and political classes.

    What has changed – hence the word ‘inevitable’ – is that even the europhile elites see that denying a referendum is not a sustainable position.

    Why not? Because both main political parties have worked out from their private polling that the offer of a referendum could be the difference between winning or losing a general election.

    Thus the UK leaves. And with it goes the financial services industry that bankrolls the country, and its last remaining major manufacturing sectors – aerospace and automobiles – which entirely depend on European membership for their prosperity.

  • Crocodile Chuck

    “..no UK government can ask taxpayers to shell out more for Greece, Italy and Spain while Britain’s own budget woes are leading to school closures, tuition increases, and cutbacks of all kinds.”

    The UK faces the same dire financial armageddon as its european stablemates:

    http://media.hindecapital.com/attachments/reports/full/129/original/Eyes_Wide_Shut_Part_I.pdf

  • Jacksonian Libertarian

    If tanks couldn’t hold the Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact together, why should we believe that the European Political Elites can hold the Euro and EU together? If they really have a plan to hold it together should they already have implemented it?

    If the Germans give their credit card to France and the PIIGS, they just guarantee that they will all go bankrupt together, as France and the PIIGS will never make the politically distasteful spending cuts necessary if they aren’t forced to by the lack of credit. Like irresponsible teenagers with mom & dads credit card, there will always be another excuse for why they have to spend more.

  • jaybird

    One thing that has always baffled me, as an American, is why many Brits seem to view the connection with the Continent as more meaningful or closer than that with the US. I made a bet once that the UK would eventually join NAFTA — maybe that is still possible.

  • Al

    My understanding is that the Uk contributes far more to the EU than France.

  • Thus the UK leaves. And with it goes the financial services industry that bankrolls the country, and its last remaining major manufacturing sectors – aerospace and automobiles – which entirely depend on European membership for their prosperity.

    Funny thing. Switzerland, Norway, Iceland, Israel, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and Singapore seem to shuffle along without being members of the European Union. They also have banks and insurance companies.

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