Will They Come Back?
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  • Jack

    An exploding population? Hardly. Egypt’s population growth has tapered off considerably in the past few decades. The fertility rate is now less than three children per woman and the total population growth rate is less than two per cent per annum. Egypt has serious problems, but an exploding population is not one of them.

  • Albert

    An Islamist dictatorship should be very good for business from countries with less stringent anti-bribery rules.

    A ruling class with the perfect totalitarian ideology. An ideology that is adhered to willingly by the population. An ideology that bases its laws on God.

  • Walter Sobchak

    Will European tourists be able to go topless at Egyptian resorts while swilling alcoholic cocktails?

    No. It is forbidden by shariah.

    Will businesses linked to the ancien regime get some kind of amnesty?

    No.

    Will a business friendly tax and regulation system tell foreigners that the welcome mat is out?

    No.

    Will the Coptic minority be made to feel secure?

    Only if they pay the jizyah from a proper attitude of submission, and comply with the restrictions on dihimmis.

    Will relations with Israel be calm enough so that foreigners won’t worry about the prospect of war?

    No. The Egyptians will not start a war because they cannot afford the fuel to carry their army into a neighboring state, Further the Army will not be willing to do any thing for the Islamist government, with which they will be completely at odds.

    However, violent eliminationist anti-Semitic rhetoric will gush from every mosque in Egypt every Friday in a vain attempt to distract the fellahin from their starvation and misery.

    What kind of relationship will the new Egyptian leaders carve out with the Gulf Arabs, in whose oil rich countries many Egyptian expats work and from whose coffers come much of the investment and aid that Egypt needs to get back on its feet?

    The Egyptians will be obsequious and treacherous in their dealings with the Gulf monarchies. The Gulf monarchies will provide Egypt with all of the charity and aid that they have in recent years, which is to say none.

    Egypt is about to embark on a toboggan ride of misery and oppression without parallel in human history. 90% of its population will starve to death or die in epidemics. Islamism will completely discredit itself as has communism (which is to say everywhere except American Universities).

    What Americans will need to do is watch without developing the urge to do anything about it. It is not a problem we can solve, only the Egyptians can solve it.

  • thibaud

    Mr. Mead’s obviously never been to an Egyptian resort.

    “Will European tourists be able to go topless at Egyptian resorts while swilling alcoholic cocktails? ”

    Well, er, they’ve never been able to do so legally, not under Mubarak or anyone else. Hotel management in the Red Sea resorts frowns upon it. Anyone who tries to do so will be asking for harassment or worse from the Egyptian staffers.

    Frankly, the more conservative nature of Sharm and the other Egyptian resorts is what makes them so much more charming than the gazillions of other package-nightmare destination resorts around the world.

  • Kris

    “Will They Come Back?”

    I thought you were talking about German tourists in Greece.

    Well, if Egypt really needs money, they could try selling gas to Israel. Wait, never mind…

    [email protected], you forgot to describe Egypt’s future as “Somalia on the Nile”. 🙂

  • Joe

    They harass Copts and threaten Jews for no reason other than to impotently prop up a collective egoism. The emerging concensus will likely lead to skin-exposing vacationers to be abused for merely kissing on the beach. Why would anyone want to ever go there again?

  • Kris

    [email protected]: “Why would anyone want to ever go there again?”

    Because it’s your last chance to see the pyramids and the sphinx before ka-boom?

  • Walter Sobchak

    [email protected], you forgot to describe Egypt’s future as “Somalia on the Nile”.

    I can’t be that optimistic. The Somalis may live in chaos and bloodshed, but at least piracy allows them to feed themselves.

    Egypt will be far more miserable than that. Mass starvation on that scale has not been seen since the 19th century.

  • Jacksonian Libertarian

    Capital is running scared all over the world, and seeking preservation rather than risk and potential hefty returns. So no matter what Egypt can put together in the way of encouragement, foreign investment and tourism are not going to return to previous levels for many years.

  • Pedro

    The real question is, will I be able to go back to the Bedouin backpacker hangouts near Taba, and will the Israeli hippie chicks still be there?

    From what I’ve read, young Israelis continue to visit Sinai. we’ll see how long it lasts..,

  • 90% of its population will starve to death or die in epidemics.

    I’m not exactly optimistic about Egypt’s future, but 90% sounds really high . . .

  • Patrick Carroll

    Huh. “Kill the infidel!” doesn’t work as an advertising slogan.

    Who’dathunk?!!?!?!???!!!!

    In other news: I used to have a neighbor who did work on Egyptian Air Force jets. He had a T-shirt he wore while working in Egypt that said (in Arabic) “I’m not a tourist, I work here.” That was back in the 1980’s. Imagine what that open sewer is like now!

  • Maybe I would consider going there in ten years or so. Years ago, I cancelled a trip to the eastern med because of the Cyprus war. I visited Turkey about 6 years ago. Egypt ? No way ! Too bad I missed the pyramids.

  • Ralph Woods

    With the MSM all aglow about the prospects of the Arab spring blossoming in Egypt every thing will be just peachy. More proof of the superior foreign policy of the Obama administration.

  • Steve L.

    Aaron cast down his rod before Pharaoh, and before his servants, and it became a serpent. An economic plague is coming. This time it’s capital and tourists fleeing.

  • Jim

    I visited Cairo and Luxor May 1-13. Tourism is down, especially in Luxor, so people who make their living from it are glad to see you. I had no problems.
    My interaction was necessarily limited to English speakers and tourism workers, but my impression is that many Egyptians have unrealistic expectations about how much a new government will change their lives.

  • Walter Sobchak

    “I’m not exactly optimistic about Egypt’s future, but 90% sounds really high . . .”

    First: As defense analyst Colin Gray Writes in a recent book about the near-term possibilities of major conflict, “Another Bloody Century,”* when considering optimism and pessimism, “optimism is apt to kill with greater certainty.”

    — “Fear of China” by Robert D. Kaplan in The Wall Street Journal, on page A14, on April 21, 2006. * ISBN 0297846272

    Second: My calculation is that Egypt’s current population is about 85 million. Historically, using pre-modern agriculture, Egypt could maintain a population of ten per-cent of that level.

    The Islamist government will not accept aid from the United States or Israel. The Gulf monarchies will not provide aid, they never do. Helping the poor and the weak is not part of Islam which has nothing but contempt for the poor and the weak. Further, Egypt has no way to earn money to pay for food other than tourism, which the new regime will destroy.

    So the conclusion is that 90% of the current population must die untimely due to disease, war, or famine. It won’t be war because the new regime will not be able to afford to engage in that sport. And disease is unlikely to kill enough people, although it will weaken the people so that they can succumb to starvation.

    Islamism can lead nowhere else in a land that cannot support itself by exporting oil.

  • Walter Sobchak

    One of the problems of not having a preview function is that it is hard to write a long answer and be complete. Here is the step I left out.

    Islamism will destroy education and technology in Egypt. The only education it will provide is memorizing Koran, and that for boys only. Egypt will not be able to support educated people who can implement modern agriculture. Nor will they be able to afford seeds and fertilizer for modern agriculture. Therefore it will be consigned to pre-modern levels of agricultural productivity.

  • Patrick Carroll

    Well, that’s 75 million less lunatics to attack Israel.

    And that’s without nuking the Aswan Dam.

    [Darn]!

  • M. Rad.

    “I’m not exactly optimistic about Egypt’s future, but 90% sounds really high . . .”

    I dunno about 90%, but the first time Islamists conquered Egypt, the canal system fell into disrepair and by the 8th century half the population starved. In these days of modern transportation I think we would see masses of refugees instead.

  • Walter Sobchak

    “In these days of modern transportation I think we would see masses of refugees instead.”

    Where will they go? Israel? Sudan? Lybia?

  • Brian

    My idea of a travel vacation somehow has never included spending it in a Muslim country, go figure.

    There’s more than enough to see in Europe and the U.S. to occupy my tourism for a lifetime. And I won’t have to wonder whether I can order a glass of wine with dinner either.

  • crypticguise

    Most Egyptians are fools; of course 90% of them are Muslims and want Sharia Law.

    Why? So they can abuse even more openly and blatently their Coptic Christian Citizens and any non-Muslim.

    Egypt and all Muslim Societies are barbaric and unable to maintain a civilized standard of living. The reason? Islam will NEVER survive in a Democratic Society, and it will DIE under Sharia Law when there are no longer any non-Muslims to do the work.

    The United States should simply abandon Egypt until it self destructs or makes the mistake of attacking Israel.

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