International Crisis Group: What Peace Process?
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  • Luke Lea

    Stating the obvious:

    “. . .in light of irreconcilable differences between the principal parties and destabilizing regional realities like the Iranian threat and the Arab Spring, prospects for Israeli-Palestinian peace in the near future are vanishingly small.”

    For the outlook to change two things will have to happen: First, this generation of radical Islamicism will have to burn itself out. And second, Europe will have to come round to accepting its historic responsibility for the Palestinian refugees (aka the Palestinian people), which was the only missing ingredient at the end of Oslo.

  • Steven E

    The idea that a two-state solution can gain mutual assent is a fantasy. The Arabs have consistently opposed a two-state solution for the last 64 years; why would anyone expect them to change their minds now? Has Hamas been overthrown in Gaza and has the Al-Asqa Martyrs’ Brigades been purged by Fatah in the West Bank?

    Irredentists cannot be induced into peace by appeasement; they can only be subdued by military force and exiled.

  • Cunctator

    I have not read the ICG’s report — I am weary of many of their “progressive” positions over the years — and, perhaps, this time will be no different. Why should we worry that the international peace process is dead in the water. Under Obama, it was rather silly to begin with. It might be better just to leave the region to settle its own affairs as best the inhabitants can. It might well lead to a fight now and again, sometime rhetorically, sometimes more violently, but in the end it is likely to reflect better the interests of the regional players than any initiative proposed by a distant leader in the White House that no one really trusts and fewer respect.

  • Corlyss

    “Does anybody still believe in the Middle East Peace Process?”

    No, of course we don’t. Not because it has proven to be such an abysmal flop for 40 years, but because we recognize a top-down imposition that does not reflect the druthers of the masses in the down part of top-down. When the people want peace, there will be peace, regardless of who in the leadership they have to kill to get it.

  • Micha

    I didn’t read the whole thing. but it seems they are still going in the same wrong direction, trying to convince the Israelis and Palestinians to make peace.

    The Palestinians can’t agree to end the conflict, and the Israelis can’t end of conflict risk concessions without end of conflict.

    What we need is to get as close to two states as possible without ending the conflict and with Israel feeling sufficiently secure. What we need is to get the most in practice with as little talking about the principles that neither side can accept.

  • Jacksonian Libertarian

    Obama has done serious damage to the US Israel relationship, and Israel isn’t going to trust him to be a mediator.

    I think this new government is a reaction to the large number of threats Israel is now under, and it’s not just the Iranians which are a threat. Egypt is now threatening Israel in the south with gas pipelines being bombed, and the Muslim Brotherhood making threats. Syria is in turmoil and that situation could turn out badly for Israel. With the rise of Hamas in recent years, the Palestinians have become more violent (if that was even possible) and less likely to make peace. Turkey has broken the good relations they had with Israel, and looks to be maneuvering for greater power in the region. And finally, Lebanon is now controlled by Hezbollah, and has rearmed with long range rockets and could attack at anytime it becomes convenient.

    The pressures on Israel have been rising slowly but steadily for some time now, and they are clearly getting scared. Joining together to present a united face to their enemies is a logical and sane response.

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