Putin Mimics Obama, Pivots to Asia
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  • Anthony

    “If you want to understand the way the international system works, you need to develop the habit of seeing the world the way people in other countries see it, and start thinking from their point of view about what moves might make sense.”

    WRM, enough said given that the “odering principle” for individual States inheres in their sovereignty vis-a-vis international system.

  • Jim.

    So the checkerboard has three colors, does it? Should be interesting.

  • It may be too early to hazard an opinion (like that’s ever stopped me). But at this point I’d welcome almost any pivot of Russia towards Asia – where its REAL security interests lie – so long as they didn’t take the Germans with them. Also from the original article:

    “In the meantime, relations between Moscow and New Delhi remain strong, with Russia continuing to hold a dominant position in India’s arms and nuclear energy markets. But both these positions are under threat from foreign competition. Russia’s military-industrial complex is still miffed at losing India’s recent tender for its main future multi-role fighter plane to a European competitor. Over time, India will likely follow China and develop a more balanced trade and investment relationship with other Asian as well as Western countries. Having some influence in Islamabad would position Moscow better to mediate between New Delhi and Islamabad and underscore the value for India of maintaining good ties with Russia.”

    I have little doubt India could use all the regional friends it can get. I also find it hard to imagine any easing of Indo-Paki tensions, as mediated by Moscow, that would leave the privileges and influence of Islamists intact (after all, the Russians have their own security on their southern flank to think of). Moreover, if US, Indian and Russian interests are not rationally compatible in the long term, then I don’t see how we can prevent Afghanistan becoming another tinderbox. I would like to think they are.

    That’s not to say Moscow will choose rationally, as opposed to seeking glory or some twisted self-vindication. IF I may badly paraphrase Churchill: Russian can always be trusted to see its own rational self-interest clearly, once it has exhausted every other vantage-point.

  • Par. 3 – What I MEANT to say:

    “. . . If US, Indian and Russian interests IN CENTRAL ASIA are not rationally compatible in the long term, then I don’t see how we can prevent Afghanistan becoming another tinderbox.”

  • Kris

    “Another Putin surprise might entail upgrading ties with Pakistan.”

    Unloading Pakistan on both China and Russia would be the greatest foreign policy coup evar!

    🙂

  • Jim.

    Why shouldn’t he pivot to Asia, with Europe rendering itself more irrelevant with every passing moment?

    Europe is unlikely to improve until its welfare state is reduced to match its reduced circumstances in the world. Only then will its relative power in the world climb again.

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