While prognostication is always difficult there are a few things that are almost certain to come to pass;
1) Egypt will enter a death spiral.
2) The Arab world will blame the Jews.
3) Obama will throw good money after bad in a futile attempt to salvage the Egyptian economy.
4) The Europeans will insist that if only the Israelis has built fewer homes and kindergartens in Jerusalem the entire disaster would surely have been averted.
5) In the New York Times a column by Tom Friedman will appear explaining how it’s all Netanyahu’s fault followed by a column by Roger Cohen extolling the moderation of the Muslim Brothers and explaining why the Tea Party and the Christian right are such a threat to democracy while the Muslim Brotherhood represents, at long last, an opportunity for the Islamic world to shine in the 21st century.
How is it that Egypt, was the breadbasket of the ancient world, and has its farmland renewed every year by the Nile, is now a net food importer? What happened?
I don’t usually agree with you Wig Wag, but your comment #1 seems spot on to me.
Islamists taking over Egypt. Boy, those zany Arabs just keep giving me heart attacks from not surprise. Not like they’re predictable or anything.
@GregQ – Egypt’s agriculture is still quite productive – the problem is that the population has grown quickly, while Egyptian agriculture is still concentrated in the same long trip along the Nile that it has been for the last 6,000 years.
There have been investments in opening up oases & deserts, but these are less productive and expensive. Much of the population growth is in urban slums, where of course nothing grows at all 😉
Also, the Aswan dam has sharply reduced silt transfer to the upper delta and increased salinity, reducing soil fertility.
Wigwag, excellent prognosis, except Leon Panetta’s and Hillary Clinton’s latest remarks on the Middle East have added another point 6) Obama will also blame the Jews for “Israel’s growing isolation in the region.”
This is what you get when you believe in idiocy like “linkage” and take Turkey’s Islamist Prime Minister Erdogan as you model of “Muslim Democracy.” Not to mention your chief adviser on the region. Erdogan thinks the US should support all the new Islamist regimes coming to power in Libya, Tunisia, Egypt and maybe Syria as well? What a shock. What’s even worse, Obama is stupid enough to believe him. No wonder King Abduallah of Jordan just said right out loud that nobody trusts America these days.
Fred (#3) – I was under the impression that Dr. Mead’s readership is of the thoughtful and well-reasoned variety. Your comment about “zany Arabs,” as if people in the Arabic-speaking world are one monolithic, irrational entity, certainly chips away at that theory.