The elephant in the room was not mentioned: oil availability and pricing. Were oil to go $85.00 or higher, the USA economy will fall back to smething more desperate than the 2007-9 recession. Oil fields are depleting, investment is falling and China/India and Far East is using more and more oil/gas, relatively more than the OECD cuts back, thus we are getting closer and closer to the supply7 situation when oil wasa $147 – and the USA is bnroke [printing more moeny will reflect in higher oil prices].
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Surely the drug wars in Mexico are as much of a wild card, and source of potential problems, as Cuba. Surprised it got no mention
While Pakistan grapples with economic, political and security issues, a realistic wild card may be lying in simmering insurgencies in India’s north and east and its regular outbursts of widespread communal violence.
“collection of ugly religious nutcases”
I have to point out that to many of us in liberal Western democracies, this phrase also includes an influential bunch of wingnuts in the United States…
Good list. I was surprised that the US having to find someone to lend it 40% of its GDP in 2010 didn’t make it!
It doesn’t sound like we have much to look forward to in 2010. Inexperienced Japanese politicians, “completely ineffective” European diplomacy, Turkey can bring about the “clash of civilizations” but can not join the EU, the system of global governance is “melting down”, China and the US don’t understand their complicated economic interdependence, nobody inside Pakistan or outside has any idea what to do about that place, The US is more polarized than it’s probably ever been, and Iranian tentacles reach further than most of us realize. I am also surprised that there is no mention of the drug wars in Mexico or the battles raging in the Horn of Africa. Thank you for highlighting these particulars. I look forward to seeing how they develop and pan out.
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