The signs are that President Obama is nearing an inflection point in foreign policy: a point where perceptions crystallize one way or the other. Either he is a cool and calm genius, restoring order to an American foreign policy in crisis, or he is a well-intentioned bumbler, Jimmy Carter II. Peggy Noonan, not surprisingly, makes this point in The Wall Street Journal. As an old Reagan speechwriter, she was going to have her doubts about Obama come what may.
However, the Economist — which endorsed him — makes a similar point. And worst of all, The New York Times blames Obama — correctly in my view — for screwing up the Middle East peace process. And Peggy Noonan’s piece doesn’t rely on Republican hacks to make the point; she quotes Elizabeth Drew and my old friend and mentor Les Gelb.
Our president is in trouble at home and abroad. And that isn’t good for anybody.
I’m hoping that he can turn this around. A strong speech on Afghanistan next Tuesday will help. Russia and China voted with the US and against Iran at the IAEA. Sino-Russian backing for a strong sanctions package would be a feather in the president’s cap. There may yet be a way to get the Middle East process back on track. The carbon commitments he’s taking to Copenhagen have at least reduced the chance of a damaging fight with his friends in Europe.
But that hope is getting harder to sustain. The last three national polls on this disturbing chart show less than 45% of the country supports current health care reform proposals with a majority opposed. The numbers keep getting worse. His popularity overall is also going the wrong way. And while the United States is a big, multicultural country, it isn’t good news that the president’s popularity among whites has fallen to 39%. I don’t have the numbers, but his numbers among white men are probably substantially lower still.
Here in Europe, Obama remains more popular than he is back home — but doubts are creeping in. In Germany I didn’t meet anybody who thought that Obama’s popularity would translate into a stronger German commitment to the war in Afghanistan. It’s likely to work the other way; Obama’s commitment to the war will weaken his standing in Europe.
Any presidency has its downs as well as ups, and the Obama administration is still very young. But there’s no way to disguise the mounting concern among his friends as well as his opponents. He’s the only president we’ve got; here’s hoping the Afghanistan speech marks the start of a turn in his fortunes.