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Mullah Mismanagement
Can Iran Hold Together Long Term?
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  • Disappeared4x

    Good that the NYT finally noticed, indirectly, that there are other self-determination movements besides the palestinians. May the 2017 UNSC be awash in resolutions considering the real plight of those who renounce violence, the requirement for membership in Unrecognized Nations and Peoples.org. Iran’s Ahwazi, Kurds, Azeris, and Balochs all members of UNPO. Ahwazi page: http://unpo.org/members/7857

    Too bad I can not (yet) find my comments on Ahwazi in a different thread at TAI. Did not know the NYT would make this an ‘official’ issue.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7bfd4201208575e7f5036d4cb6e3ab7568569b1c17b298ee4b81b98534298764.jpg

  • WigWag

    It would be nice to think that our nation’s “Intelligence” Agencies were spending as much time and effort to undermine the Iranian regime as they are trying to undermine the Trump presidency. But I guess that’s wishful thinking.

    • Angel Martin

      Given the eventual outcomes of getting rid of Saddam and Gadaffi, I say let them continual to fail on Iran.

      In terms of “Intelligence” agencies I think Saddam had the right idea. He didn’t trust any of them, so he created more agencies and had them spy on each other.

      In that vein, I recommend that President Trump create a half dozen additional new agencies in addition to the existing seventeen, and let them “investigate” each other…

  • Dale Fayda

    Curious what constitutes “long term” at TAI. A decade or two? A century? In the “long term” ALL political entities collapse for a whole host of reasons. At what kind of timeline is TAI looking with Iran?

    • Disappeared4x

      Depends on whether/when TAI sees Iran2017 as a small Persian Empire, or just another nation ripe for regime change. Imo, it is still Persia, which adopted Shi’ism as a state religion to counter the Ottomans.

      • Dale Fayda

        Be that as it may, it still doesn’t answer my question. What does TAI consider “long term” in Iran’s political development? Without that frame of reference, I think this entire article is pointless.

        • Disappeared4x

          Just read the NYT article – focus is on environmental issues, not one hint of Ahwazi self-determination, which I commented on at TAI on Feb. 8. Mr. Mead’s segue into Iran’s numerous ethnic & religious minorities is good dot-connecting, imo, especially with POTUS “bigger canvas” regarding the Israeli quest for peace.

          “long-term” could become “near-term” in 2017, if: 1) Syria’s map is redrawn to allow Jordan to annex Daraa & Turkey gets Hatay; and/or 2) if the UNSC does see other self-determination petitions, e.g., Somaliland, Ahwazis, Iraqi& Syrian Kurdistan, even Baluchistan without anything on Palestinians.

          Perhaps Mr. Mead is thinking of regime change in Iran, resulting in another break-up like Yugoslavia, the finale of the Hapsburg break-up.

          John Bolton went on the record that regime change in Iran is the only solution, and he was still in the running for NSA when this was posted. I disagree that regime change will change Iran, because, they still think they are Persia.

          These days, Iran and North Korea are always important topics. At some point in the future, long-term could mean oops, right now, because POTUS’ is challenging so many shibboleths.
          Beats another post calling for reform for infrastructure projects, or shale…or Russians occupying the WH.

          • Dale Fayda

            Thanks 🙂

    • GS

      A useful time unit is a”generation”, something like 20-25 yrs. Long term is 2-4 generations.

  • Robert Bennett

    An interesting commentary. There is, perhaps, a warning in this to us about “diversity” and identity politics. We would be much better off if we all considered ourselves to be Americans, rather than hyphenated Americans.

    • LarryD

      +1000 A multi-ethnic (or multi-racial, if you prefer) can only avoid tribalism if it has a common, higher level identity.

  • Disappeared4x

    Unfortunate New News: “…Russia’s deputy U.N. ambassador, Vladimir Safronkov, told The Associated Press that Churkin became ill in his office at Russia’s U.N. mission and was taken to Columbia Presbyterian Hospital, where he died Monday. His cause of death wasn’t immediately known. …”

    http://time.com/4676401/vitaly-churkin-russia-ambassador-united-nations-dead/?xid=homepage

  • Jacksonian_Libertarian

    No police state willing to murder its citizens wholesale has ever been overthrown.

  • FriendlyGoat

    The ulama class screwed up Iran and our own version is now screwing up the United States.

  • donqpublic

    Sykes Picot never went into effect. It’s a curious era of Sykes Picot when none of the war time diplomatic agreements before and after the Sykes Picot agreement ever went in to effect.

  • jstrong365

    Balderdash. For a meaningful resistance to emerge it would require foreign funding and conduits.
    Iran’s western border is controlled by their puppet state called Iraq. The GCC might want to destabilize Iran, but there is no way to get them weapons. Turkey was fine with supporting the Islamic State, but they won’t funnel weapons across the border to the Kurds.

    Tehran may be cosmopolitan but most Iranians live in small villages and are conservative Shiites. They will support any action to protect the state and the revolution.

  • Well, to be honest, Saudi Arabia and most of the Gulf states are far less diverse and much more homogeneous than Iran, and they seem to be doing not a whole not better so far.

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