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Ukraine's Future
Abkhazia Today, Donbass Tomorrow

Earlier this week, Moscow signed a deal with Abkhazia, the region it pried off of Georgia in the 2008 war. The details of the deal constitute a big win for the territorially ambitious Kremlin. Reuters reports:

Under the terms of Monday’s accord, Putin said Russia would grant 5 billion rubles ($111.4 million) to Abkhazia, whose population of 240,000 comprises a mix of ethnic groups.

The agreement, posted on the Kremlin website, envisages a “joint defense and security space” and stipulates Russian “protection of the state border of the Republic of Abkhazia with Georgia.”

It obliges Russia to facilitate “in every possible way” growing Abkhazia’s international ties and promoting its global recognition.

Moscow would also ease requirements for Abkhazia residents to obtain Russian citizenship, but it has not voiced plans to annex the territory.

The deal falls short of an annexation, but it could pave the way for one. Putin has effectively managed to take over a coveted Russian-speaking region that is the internationally-recognized sovereign territory of a neighbor, despite Western protests and threats. Sound like any other geopolitical crisis you know?

The parallels between Ukraine today and Georgia six years ago run deep. If things keep going the way they are going, what we could be seeing in Abkhazia today is a snapshot of what we might expect for Donbass in a few years.

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  • Jacksonian_Libertarian

    This is how Hitler and the Nazi’s operated.

  • BobSykes

    Putin is not Hitler, and Russia today is not Nazi Germany. However, Putin would like to restore the Tsarist empire. The Ukraine east of the Dniepr was conquered by Russia and 1667, and Russia acquired the rest sometime later. So, large parts of Ukraine were Russian for some 324 years. That’s longer than Ohio has been part of the USA, longer than the union of Scotland and England, longer than France’s modern boundaries, longer the the existence of Germany and Italy, etc., etc.

    You should also remember that the current mess started when the US engineered a violent coup d’etat that ousted the legitimate, democratically elected President of Ukraine, Yanukovych. That precipitated the chaos that Russia was able to exploit.

    US/EU/NATO foreign policy is mere political vandalism and has created chaos everywhere in the Middle East, North Africa and Central Asia. Without this vandalism, Ukraine would be at peace and intact with their corrupt oligarchs enjoying their feast, and Libya, Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan would be lying peacefully under the local dictators.

    If there are any Nazis today, it is US/EU/NATO.

    • Government Drone

      We could make the same sorts of arguments regarding East Prussia/Kaliningrad; it was undeniably German for centuries till 1945. Can we expect Putin to return it to Germany in the near future?

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