mead cohen berger shevtsova garfinkle michta grygiel blankenhorn
Towards The Tipping Point In Syria?

Over a million people demonstrated across Syria after Friday prayers yesterday. Importantly, significant numbers of people turned out on the streets in Aleppo and Damascus. The smart money has always said that the Syrian revolution will ultimately turn on what happens in Syria’s two biggest cities — and that Damascus matters more than Aleppo.  The battle for Damascus is the battle for Syria: stay tuned.

One key indicator to track: money movements.   The Syrian regime rests on understandings between the Alawites around the Assads and the military on the one hand and a mostly Sunni economic elite in Damascus and to a lesser degree in Aleppo.  If this understanding breaks, the end game has begun.

There are rumors of huge movements of Syrian money into Lebanon; these seem exaggerated but Syrians do seem to be looking for the exits.

Best Mead estimate: the balance continues to tilt against the Assads.

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