“Never interrupt an enemy while he is making a mistake.” Vladimir Putin might not hold Napoleon in reverence, but these days he could surely relate to perhaps his most famous dictum. Just a few weeks back, the United States, most of the European Union, and several other states united in a common front to expel more than 100 Russian diplomats (or, shall we say, diplomatic officers) in response to the poisoning of Sergei and Yulia Skripal in the English town of Salisbury. The Transatlantic bond looked as firm as ever, never mind Brexit, Trump, and the rest—that is, until the White House changed it all, at a stroke, by pulling the United States out of the Iran nuclear deal, despite the Europeans’ entreaties. Neither French President Emmanuel Macron nor German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who both pleaded their case in Washington, succeeded in changing Trump’s mind—not to speak of Boris Johnson, who made his plea on Fox and Friends, the President’s favorite talk show. Now as a result of Trump’s decision, Europe’s big three are on one side of the barricade together with Russia, and the United States on the other. Even though European companies are pulling out from Iran in order to avoid being penalized by the American authorities, France, Britain, and Germany are vowing they are going to adhere to the so-called Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Russia appears to be game. Sergei Ryabkov, the Deputy Foreign Minister, called for “cooperation [between] Europeans, Russia, and China” to keep the Iran deal afloat.

There is another storm looming over trade, too. While the Trump team has directed most of its fire against China, it has singled out Europe as a bad actor as well. The European Union’s temporary exemptions from U.S. tariffs on aluminum and steel might be lifted, prompting another Transatlantic brawl at the World Trade Organization. The automotive sector is another bone of contention, with the United States complaining about the European import duties that keep American carmakers at bay. The Administration has an axe to grind against Germany, in particular, which happens to run a trade surplus with America to the tune of nearly $60 billion, according to Germany’s Federal Statistical Office (FSO). Luxury brands such as Mercedes Benz and BMW are going to take a hit if Washington slaps a 25 percent tariff on imports, as many expect. In addition, the State Department is giving Berlin heat over Nord Stream 2. They want Merkel to abandon the pipeline crossing the Baltic Sea, frowned upon by many in Eastern Europe, and to threaten sanctions against German and European firms doing business with Gazprom. The U.S. Department of Energy wants Germany to commit to buying more liquefied natural gas (LNG) from across the Atlantic. Whether it is a genuine demand or a ploy to gain leverage on other trade issues, the push from Washington puts Germany in the same basket with Russia once again. Berlin’s position has always been that Nord Stream 2, as well as Nord Stream 1 which is already in operation, is a purely commercial venture. But not many buy this line, it seems.

Vladimir Putin, for one, definitely wouldn’t. The Kremlin’s master is now seeing a host of European leaders come a-courting. First, Angela Merkel decamped to Sochi; then Emmanuel Macron appeared at Putin’s side at this year’s St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, with a retinue of top-level French companies in tow. His visit resulted in the signature of a gas deal between Novatek, a company owned by Putin’s billionaire friend Gennady Timchenko (on the West’s sanction list), and France’s Total. The French energy firm has recently pulled out from a $2 billion gas venture in Iran, due to the U.S. sanctions.

Russia’s economy is bouncing back after several years of recession resulting from the sanctions and low oil prices. The Eurozone is doing relatively well, too, though it is not out of the woods. In 2017, Gazprom’s deliveries to Europe reached a peak, with Germany in its traditional role as leader in terms of consumption. The U.S. decision on Iran is leading to a spike in oil prices, which in turn drives up Russian profits from trade with Europe. And lastly, Russia is hosting this year’s World Cup (it’s football, not soccer, as Europeans would surely like to remind their American friends), which is expected to give a boost to both the economy and Moscow’s international prestige. Freshly inaugurated as President, Vladimir Vladimirovich seems to be heading for a relaxed summer.

Both Merkel and Macron believe that the time is ripe to engage Russia on Iran too. Macron, who stood firmly by Trump’s side during April’s strikes in Syria targeting both regime and Iranian assets, went to St Petersburg to discuss the JCPOA with Putin. Vladimir Vladimirovich seized on the opportunity to snipe at the United States: After the talks with Macron he warned America its decision carried “lamentable consequences.” However, it is not immediately clear what outcome the “difficult but necessary” meeting (Macron’s own characterization) yielded, if any. But the mere appearance of a Western split will suffice for the Kremlin.

This does not mean that the European Union and Russia are in full rapprochement mode, however. The real test will be the sanctions against Moscow over the war in Ukraine, but these are without doubt coming under discussion again. Italy’s newly installed government, a coalition between the populist Five Star Movement and the right-wing, xenophobic Northern League, whose leader Matteo Salvini has posed for photos while wearing a Putin T-shirt, would like to see them lifted. Other member states, from Greece and Bulgaria to Austria and Slovakia, share the same view. But without a shift in position by Macron and Merkel, no move is likely. Meanwhile Italy has bigger fish to fry, as it prepares to challenge EU rules mandating fiscal discipline. In a gesture towards Moscow, Germany and France might increase (symbolic) pressure on Ukraine to implement its part of the Minsk 2 agreement, but that’s about it. Well-informed observers in Moscow believe that the discussions over sanctions are essentially at a dead end. Prospects for the European Union striking a deal with Russia behind America’s back are negligible. Another obstacle to rapprochement between Russia and the European Union as a whole is yesterday’s official statement by the Dutch government naming Russia as the culprit for the downing of Malaysian Airlines Flight MH17 in July 2014.

Putin has made a series of tactical gains, but at the end of the day Europe’s preference is to make sure the disputes with the United States don’t get out of hand. As a seasoned commentator on German and European affairs noted, Berlin might simply wait out the Trump Administration in the hope that what comes next will be more open to accommodation. Those hopes might be dashed, of course—if American voters choose again Trump and his version of the GOP come 2020.

One thing is for sure: Putin will be waiting patiently to cash in on any rifts opening up between the United States and Europe. A St. Petersburg native, Putin takes pride in the history of his home town, originally built by Peter the Great to showcase Russia’s newly chosen European vocation. Who knows? Putin might even start singing the praises of the Old Continent’s unity.