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Political Economy
Housing Market Picks Up Steam

This may mean more for Trump’s political future than all the drama in DC. From the WSJ:

U.S. home prices rose in January at their fastest rate since mid-2014, a trend that bodes well for sellers but could start to eat into demand as buyers get priced out of the market.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, which cover the entire nation, rose 5.9% in the 12 months ended in January, the strongest increase in 31 months, up from a 5.7% year-over-year increase in December. […]

The accelerating gains are being driven by job growth, a large demographic of people entering their 30s and looking to buy homes, and limited supply of homes on the market.

Add home prices to the list of economic indicators—including consumer confidence, employment, and the stock market—that have improved significantly in the months since the election.

It’s been said that presidents get more credit than they deserve when the economy performs well and more blame than they deserve when it performs poorly. The truth is that Trump inherited an economy that was gathering momentum on its own. But if that momentum persists, he may once again prove harder to stop than his opponents imagine.

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  • FriendlyGoat

    The truth is that Trump inherited an economy that was gathering momentum on its own. Not to worry, Republicans will ruin it long term.

    • ——————————

      Our economy goes up and down, that’s what makes a market…doesn’t matter much who is in office. What Trump will/has do is lift consumer and business confidence….

      • FriendlyGoat

        Eventually, we will have to re-discover that high-end tax cuts did not, do not, cannot and will not create a net increase in living-wage jobs. None of the GOP-contemplated budget cuts have kicked in. When they do, the “confidence” thing will tank.

        • SLEcoman

          Changes to corporate tax rates that incentivize US corporations to repatriate something $2 trillion in profits currently parked overseas, lowering the corporate tax rate, and ending many loopholes that act as economic drags by perpetuating economic inefficiency are very likely to improve economic conditions in the US. ‘A rising tide lifts all boats’ – John Kennedy

          • FriendlyGoat

            Let’s list and quantify the “loopholes” to be eliminated, okay? We need to have a good extended discussion of what those are. We might also want to discuss the new ones to be added, such as immediate expensing of the automation hardware which will be eliminating jobs going forward.

          • Anthony
          • FriendlyGoat

            Populism at this moment strikes me as people electing the exact opposite of what they thought they wanted and what they were told they would be getting.

          • Anthony

            I agree with your assessment with conditions – most people as author states have vague understanding of term. I think the idea that cultural backlash incorporated with the three dimensions listed by author gives a firmer understanding to term from a practical point of view. Here’s a related piece: http://www.vox.com/conversations/2017/3/27/15037232/trump-populist-appeal-culture-economy

          • SLEcoman

            I agree ‘the devil is in the details’ regarding loopholes. Looking at how GE, year after year, is able to avoid paying virtually any federal corporate income tax might be a good place to start. Maybe we need a ‘alternative minimum tax’ for corporations just as we do for individuals.

          • FriendlyGoat

            Corporate AMT is a good idea, but you probably know that elimination of all AMT is a GOP goal this time. Ditto Gift and Estate Tax. It’s hard for me to imagine the Trump supporters finding it okey-dokey for him to sign the repeal of his main taxes, but they probably will.

    • Angel Martin

      “The truth is that Trump inherited an economy that was gathering momentum on its own. Not to worry, Republicans will ruin it long term.”

      How long is “long term”?

      Is it longer than it takes for the Brexit vote to produce the “disaster” you predicted ?

      • FriendlyGoat

        They might be similar. Brexit is just now starting (starting) to happen. Consequences are not here yet. They “negotiate” for two years.

        With high-end tax cuts, those also take time to stimulate the elimination of middle-level jobs. But eventually “good” jobs in profitable companies taxed at 20% are bigger downsizing targets than “good” jobs in profitable companies taxed at 40%. AND, with tax cuts, it takes a while to get the spending cuts which go with them, but come they will.

        • Proverbs1618

          High end tax cuts??? DRINK!!!!!!
          Only all powerful State can provide jobs??? DRINK!!!!
          Increasing taxation will actually create jobs (all economic literature points to the exact opposite)???? CHUG THE WHOLE THING!!!!
          It’s like Comrade FriendlyGoat bingo. No useless, irrelevant talking point left behind.
          A for effort. F for understanding how economy works.

    • Proverbs1618

      Long term? You mean business cycle? So business cycle existence is the fault of Republicans? Wow, your true intelligence really shines through with comments like this. Once again, I just want to point out that while your stupidity must be a tragedy for you, it is a comedy for the rest of us.

      • FriendlyGoat

        Long term is not the business cycle. Long term could well be defined as a generation—-like when the kids discover they are worse off economically than their parents. That is already occurring now, of course, as a result of our past tax cutting. Republicans are guaranteed to make it worse.

        • Proverbs1618

          Yes, everything is the fault of your boogey man. Your religious fervor is something to behold. you are aware that inequality took a big step forward under your Personal Lord and Savior, Barack Hussein Obama? you are aware of the fact that he actually increased taxes? Oh well…

          • FriendlyGoat

            I have the kind of religious fervor which does not oscillate from quoting “God is gonna get ya” verses out of the Old Testament on some days to making fun of the New Testament on other days. My religious fervor simply asks for the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth on economic matters. It asks that we not be obligated to philosophical camps where people MUST spin from the far right or far left at every moment for the sake of political tribalism. The fact of the matter is that citizens as a whole are FAR better off with some mitigating reins (aka income taxes and regulation) on commerce than without them. This is the clear lesson of the last 200 years in this country and in all countries.

          • Proverbs1618

            I was making fun of you not the New Testament. As far as I can tell, Jesus told his followers to feed the hungry, not petition Roman Empire to increase taxes to confiscatory levels to, ostensibly, feed the hungry. You worship the State far more than you worship anything spiritual. I’m just pointing that out, nothing more. That, and I want you to ban this ID, as there are more Bible quotes of “God’s gonna getcha” variety that I want to use.

          • FriendlyGoat

            You could try flagging the worst of your own comments. They might ban your ID so you can get another one and start over. Just sayin’.

          • Proverbs1618

            Nah… I leave censorship and other totalitarian tricks to you. It takes a special kind of douche to censor people on anonymous Internet boards. Thankfully you are just the douche for the job.

          • FriendlyGoat

            But, but,…..”I want you to ban this ID” is what you say.

          • Proverbs1618

            You banned so many already. You did that because you are a censoring douche. So why shouldn’t I try to provoke you? The upside is that I amuse myself and if successful I get to read many wonderful passages from the Bible before deciding on my next user name. The downside…. Well, I can’t think of one. Seems like a winning proposition to me.
            Plus, I fail to see how it is my fault that inequality grew under Saint Obama. I mean, I benefited tremendously from it, but I doubt you consider that to be a good outcome.

          • FriendlyGoat

            TAI banned the ones it thought inappropriate for its site. I couldn’t and didn’t ban any. You can TRY with your own flagging, I tell you, and maybe they will accommodate your need for attention.

          • Proverbs1618

            I leave censorship and snitching to douches like you. Plus, I like referring to Hussein as your own Personal Lord and Savior. His policies seem to inform your actions way more than anything or anyone else.

          • FriendlyGoat

            I know what you like referring to. It’s the prestigious degrees from supposed-to-be-respected institutions, I guess. But, you “inform” me in ways no one else could. Truly inimitable.

          • Proverbs1618

            You don’t have to respect any institution of higher learning. Your opinion is irrelevant.
            I’m also glad you like me referencing Hussein in a way that I do. I aim to please after all.

          • FriendlyGoat

            Too bad your comments do not appear in their Alumni Quarterlies.

          • Proverbs1618

            I doubt my Internet comment history is of that much interest.

          • FriendlyGoat

            Your complete Internet comment history would have reversed the outcome of the recent presidential election if it had been required reading for voters. Regrettably, only I and a few others receive the complete set of your political/religious analyses of matters in the public interest. You have no idea how persuasive you really are against everything you purport to represent. The style factors are truly stunning.

          • Proverbs1618

            You are once again mistakenly thinking that your perception of reality is the only one there is. You keep on insisting that those who disagree with you are just mistaken. They only need to be shown the error of their ways. And if a little force has to be applied to make them see that error, well, you know what they say about eggs and omelette.
            I know, the ideas of liberty, personal responsibility, freedom of choice are so grotesque that just listening to me people will reject them. Hey it’s your delusion, feel free to live in it.
            For what’s it worth, you haven’t exactly made a believer in goodness of power of the State out of me.

          • FriendlyGoat

            I was thinking of your graphic explanations and inclinations to write with off-the-wall hostility which must be hidden from your wife, kids, rabbi, co-workers, clients and alma-maters. They would have been so helpful for disclosing what political conservatism amounts to in reality..

          • Proverbs1618

            Sigh…. There you go again. You are once again telling me how I act. I’m quiet open about my beliefs, and my coworkers are well aware of them, as is my family. I’m fortunate to work in an environment where concepts of hard work and self reliance are not seen as obscene.
            You keep on telling ME about how I live all the while maintaining that somehow your failed Statist agenda is some kind of perfect natural state of being. And as I told you many times before, how can I not believe in Kind and Merciful God when somebody as scary as you are is kept out of power?
            You are a coward. You can’t imagine somebody actually having a courage of their convictions. That’s the thing about cowards. They always assume everybody else is as cowardly as they are.

          • FriendlyGoat

            You are living in the USA and the level of socialism practiced here isn’t “killing you”—-in fact, it makes your day-do-day life possible. As far as your expression of “beliefs” in real life and your aggression in the comment section, they are not the same. If they were, you would not have any relationships. You cannot and do not run around comparing real people you disagree with to those with hygiene problems on the subway. You do not blast scripture at your business colleagues. You do not insult your children’s real teachers You do not call anyone cockroaches to their faces and not experience violent repercussions. I know you by your words, dude. I wish everyone did.
            We would have better politics with the nuts out front instead of living as closeted typists.

          • Tom

            FG, I’m also sure that you don’t go around IRL and question the salvation of people who voted for Trump to their faces. Nor do you go around acting like you’re everyone’s intellectual superior because you’re a liberal.
            You and JR deserve each other.

          • FriendlyGoat

            I don’t even talk about questioning anyone’s salvation HERE. In your circles, that’s the biggest of big deals, I guess, which explains why you (not I) bring it up. I question the replacement of honesty with perpetual antagonism, and how religion seems to have now caused a great number of folks to steadfastly pretend that the meaner they get, the more they are serving God. I think it’s the same dangerous baloney which puts the “radical” in “radical Islam”—–just different dogma.

          • Tom

            Goat, you’ve basically done everything but come out and said that you think that evangelicals who voted for Trump aren’t actually Christians.

          • FriendlyGoat

            I think that most of them who are not already wealthy and merely voting to further feather their own nests in that regard are civic and political fools, brainwashed, clueless and completely careless to what they are endorsing and enabling. America is not “made great” by the perpetual deception which is now the standard fare in Republicanism. When people vote to push wealth and power straight upward on every material issue WHILE claiming they are trying to return power to the people, they either have a knowledge problem or an integrity problem. With most evangelicals, I think it is a knowledge problem. Church, itself, should be helping folks avoid being either ignorant or duplicitous, but my observation of the last thirty year is that it does not—–maybe cannot because of its own business models.

          • Tom

            Yep. Congratulations.
            As I said, you and JR deserve each other.

          • FriendlyGoat

            Thank you. I deserve to be congratulated for making a serious effort to care about both the church and the country.

          • Tom

            You would be thus deserving of such, if you actually made the serious effort to care.

          • FriendlyGoat

            Calling attention to the reality that the American evangelical church is now following Donald J. Trump as its most prominent and definitive overall leader is my main message of concern for both the church and the country. Few on the inside seem to know by what they have been captured. From the outside, the situation is obvious and expressive of a dire condition.

          • Tom

            The problem being that the situation described in your first sentence is not reality.

          • FriendlyGoat

            As an aside, after hearing you point out on several occasions that JR and I “deserve each other”, I have concluded that we actually don’t. I blocked my own ability to see anything from two of his user names today, advised him of same and will be blocking any others he might create to reply to me in the future. He may continue debating me for your entertainment, but I won’t know or be participating.

          • Tom

            Probably not, honestly.
            You’ve heard of what happened when some professors up in New York gender-swapped Clinton and Trump and ran a replay of the debates, right? Answer: the exact opposite of what most of the commentariat were claiming–people actually liked a man who acted like Clinton less, and a woman who acted like Trump more.

    • seattleoutcast

      The economy is very unstable. All of the indicators that the globalist-sponsored media claim to be positive indicators are rigged. When it does collapse, you will blame Trump. Either way, the republicans are at fault in your mind. The truth is, central bankers are thieves and your side got them into power with Woodrow Wilson. Your side doubled down with FDR and Johnson. The republicans took us off the gold standard under Nixon which made things even more fubar. You’ll notice that I am blaming both sides and not being a partisan.

  • Beauceron

    Well, the rabid Left have thrown pretty much everything they can in a non-stop barrage of venom and bile.

    I think one of two things will happen: 1) the ceaseless bombardments will take their toll and the Republicans will crumble 2) people will just begin ignoring the media.

    Frankly, I still think the country is unraveling. Slowly at the moment, but I suspect that it will pick up steam and implode.

    • Andrew Allison

      Begin ignoring the media? I think people have been mostly ignoring it since President Trump became the GOP nominee

  • Angel Martin

    One issue is that the expectations data has improved a lot more than the actual data. While employment continues to grow steadily, Industrial Production, Retail Sales and Real Income are much more erratic.

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