It was a landslide. By nine p.m. ET on October 15, CBC gave the election to Justin Trudeau and the Liberals. An hour later, it was clear that Trudeau would have a majority. A month ago the three parties were neck and neck. On the eve of the election, it looked like a Liberal minority government. Instead, the combination of weaker-than-expected results for the NDP and a groundswell of Liberal support in Atlantic and Central Canada delivered the charismatic but relatively inexperienced son of political icon Pierre Trudeau to Canada’s highest office. With 54 percent of parliamentary seats and 40 percent of the popular vote, the Trudeau government has a clear mandate to govern.
What does the Trudeau victory mean for the United States? Justin Trudeau is a telegenic, charismatic “people person.” He consistently emphasized that Canada is an inclusive, multicultural and tolerant society, even as Conservatives resorted to painting Muslim Canadians as alien and un-Canadian. Trudeau presents an optimistic view of economic growth that embraces new trade agreements and diversification of trading partners, expansion of energy infrastructure, including pipelines, and strong support for clean technology and climate change mitigation.
The upbeat campaign messaging must be tempered by Trudeau’s own lack of political experience. He has only been in Parliament since 2008 and never a member of Cabinet. His new team of Liberal MPs are mostly freshmen, because only 34 Liberals were elected in the last federal election in 2011.
The capacity of Canada’s senior civil service to problem-solve with U.S. counterparts is likely to expand under Trudeau. Under Stephen Harper’s top-down management, no authority was delegated to his cabinet secretaries, even less to senior civil servants. All decisions, down to the actual wording of speeches by Ambassadors abroad, were channeled through the Prime Minister’s office for clearance. This doesn’t mean that problems such as Keystone XL and softwood lumber will not crop up from time to time, but more autonomy provides officials with greater resources to deal with issues before they become bilateral crises.
Unlike the divisions between Democrats and Republicans in the United States, on trade and business issues Canada’s Liberals and Conservatives differ more in style than substance. U.S. investors and traders will find business as usual in Canada. However, a new Prime Minister may reset the switch on the fractious Canada-U.S. relationship. Justin Trudeau, by all accounts, is a collaborator and a bridge-builder. In Trudeau’s first major foreign policy speech last summer, he focused almost exclusively on the importance of restoring strong relations with the United States, stating, “For our American cousins, the relationship is consequential. For us, it has often been definitional.”
Where Stephen Harper narrowed the conversation to take-it-or-leave-it options, expect Trudeau to work constructively to find solutions to the bigger issues by drawing new connections, such as between energy and the environment.
On trade, Canadians are probably more concerned about U.S. ratification of TPP than they are about the chances of domestic rejection of an agreement that most agree will be good for Canada. We might expect early ratification of the TPP in Canada followed by outreach to like-minded countries such as New Zealand and Mexico to help bolster U.S. domestic support (and to figure out a Plan B if the United States fails to approve the deal).
On defense, Trudeau has stated a desire to pull out of the offensive against ISIL and halt the acquisition of the F-35 fighter jet, but he has signaled continuing support in other areas. Close cooperation and interoperability with the U.S. military and security communities will undoubtedly continue. Trudeau’s government is also likely to continue and hopefully expand the Harper-Obama commitment to a safe and secure border that also facilitates trade and travel between the United States and Canada.
Some of the new issues to watch out for include a strengthened commitment to climate change policy—under Harper, the federal government allowed the provinces to lead on carbon reduction strategies. Trudeau has also pledged to invest in new infrastructure, which, in addition to stimulating Canada’s oil-shocked economy, should generate trade gains and efficiencies. Trudeau has also promised to repair Canada’s strained relationship with Mexico by making it easier for Mexicans to travel to Canada and by deepening commercial ties to Canada’s third-largest trading partner.
When Justin Trudeau entered the election campaign, the Harper campaign attempted to undercut his credibility by referring to him by his first name only and calling him “Just Not Ready.” It backfired. Justin was born in the Prime Minister’s residence, for real, and many Canadians feel like we are on first name terms with him. Trudeau is likeable and approachable—everything that Harper is not. Trudeau helps Canadians recall the more aspirational, optimistic, and inclusive federation that brought migrants from all corners of the world to Pierre Trudeau’s Canada.
Justin’s appeal to Canadians’ better angels won their hearts and votes. That optimism must now face the cold reality of economic stagnation and social discontent.