The Evolution of Erdogan
Erdogan’s Economic Miracle Endangered

With two months to go before the Turkish election, new economic data confirms what we’ve been seeing for some time: the Turkish economy has stalled out. Hurriyet Daily News reports:

The Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) announced the GDP growth rate for 2014 as 2.9 percent upon fixed prices on March 31. The GDP grew 2.6 percent in the last quarter of 2014, according to the TÜİK data. There was some shrinkage in the added value of the agricultural sector at around 2 percent and in total investments at around 1.3 percent. Industrial production grew by 3.5 percent and the services sector by 4 percent in 2014.

The national income contracted by some $23 billion in 2014. Turkey’s national income, thus, decreased to $800 billion and the income per-capita by $418 with the latest updates. The income per capita fell to around $10,404 in 2014, compared to $10,822 in 2013.

The TÜİK and other sources cited by Hurriyet also suggest that the start of 2015 hasn’t been pretty—and that consumer confidence could lag going forward. Meanwhile, Erdogan’s efforts to revive economic growth have been both unorthodox and unsuccessful.

The AKP hardly risks losing its place atop Turkish politics in the upcoming June elections, but Erdogan hopes to accomplish something more—an ambitious constitutional reform that will consolidate his power as President, and for which his party will have to win a parliamentary supermajority. With a lackluster economy on his hands, however, the President might find that goal harder to achieve, and this electoral season more exciting than he would wish.

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