A Fraying Union
Europe’s Economies on the Brink
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  • Anthony

    An observation: in 1992 when the Treaty of Maastricht created the Euro, it was stipulated that member states should ensure that their budget deficits would be less than 3% of GDP and that total public debt would remain below 60% of GDP. Has creation of currency without a state post 2008 contributed to fiscal difficulties alluded to in Feed’s subject matter – especially reforms of the social state?

    • Sibir_RUS

      Global Financial Crisis: A World In Debt
      http://demonocracy.info/infographics/usa/world_debt/world_debt.html
      …the debt of Russia is so small, that it is almost invisible.
      http://i.imgur.com/iF0G5yY.jpg

      • Anthony

        As you know, GDP measures the total goods and services produced in a given year within the borders of a given country. With that said and to your reference, Western countries are enmeshed in what appears to be an interminable debt crisis (public debt averaging about 90% of GDP). On the other hand, the question of public debt remains essentially a question of the distribution of wealth – the West is rich but the governments of the West are poor (public and private actors). Still, the public debt crisis presents a paradox. Thanks for links.

        • Curious Mayhem

          The West is rich in assets and income, but its liabilities are larger still. Artificially low interest rates currently mask the pain. They won’t forever.

          • Anthony

            The West’s national wealth (private wealth + public wealth) exceeds liabilities and my response to Sibir_Rus was premised on that formulation. “…what is most striking is that national wealth in Europe has never been so high. To be sure, net public wealth is virtually zero, given size of public debt, but net private wealth is so high that the sum of the two is as great as it has been in a century.”

  • Sibir_RUS

    Awara Group Study on Real GDP Growth Net-of-Debt
    http://www.awarablogs.com/group/index.php/easyblog/entry/awara-group-study-on-real-gdp-growth-net-of-debt
    In this groundbreaking study by Awara Group reveals that the real, debt-adjusted, GDP growth of Western countries has been in negative territory for years. Only by massively loading up debt have they been able to hide the true picture and delay the onset of an inevitable collapse of their respective economies. The study shows that the real GDP of those countries hides hefty losses after netting the debt figures, which gives the Real-GDP-net-of-debt.
    The moral of the study is that it is that GDP growth figures as such reveal very little about the underlying dynamics of an economy if one does not simultaneously attempt to analyze what part of the growth is credited to simply artificially fueling the economy with new loans.
    The shocking figures depicting the virtual crippling of the Western economies from 2009 to 2013 are illustrated in Chart 1. It shows the real GDP growth net-of-debt after deducting the growth of public debt from the GDP figure. Net of debt we see the scale of destruction of the Spanish economy, which amounts to the staggering figure of minus 56.3%.
    http://i.imgur.com/lQgU6BD.png

    • Loader2000

      Simply subtracting debt from accumulated GDP growth figures over a 4 year period is not the best way to gauge long term economic health, especially if that 4 year period just happens to be during the worst recession in the last 70 years. In that case, the statistic is almost meaningless since GDP to debt ratios almost always go down during recessions. It is the recovery over the next 10 years that is important. GDP growth just has to keep the ratio of debt to GDP constant over a long period, or, even better, slightly shrinking. If that ratio is growing, and keeps growing in the future, things will eventually get bad. However, how bad they get and what solutions are used to solve the problem could result in anything from a major depression 20 years to the road to a relatively moderate recession in 5-10 years. Furthermore, game changing technologies (like the PC and the internet) tend to dramatically reduce those ratios in countries with the most free markets and the least corruption. In other words, I think you are grasping at straws. The culture of a country, the demographics, and the amount of corruption both in business and government will have much stronger long term effects on the future health of its economy than the GDP growth with the debt subtracted from it during a cherry picked 4 year period.

      • Curious Mayhem

        Debt is a cumulative stock, as are assets. The proper comparison is assets and liabilities, both stocks — not liabilities with income.

        Income or output per annum is an annual flow, on the other hand.

        It’s like the difference between a company’s balance sheet (assets minus liabilities) and its income and cash flow statements.

  • Jacksonian_Libertarian

    The West and most of the World have been in Great Depression 2.0 for 6 years now even if no one but me wants to admit the fact. This article talks about a “Consumer Price Index” without recognizing it is a subset of the Price Index for the entire economy.
    Here is the evidence for Great Depression 2.0
    1. Historically High Unemployment
    2. Historically High Bankruptcy rate
    3. Historically High Debt levels resulting in unwillingness to take on more debt
    4. Historically Low interest rates
    5. Historically High foreclosures
    6. Falling Wages – Unheard of except in a deflating economy
    7. Historically Low inflation despite the Fed’s printing of Trillions of Dollars. What “Consumer” inflation there is, is being created by Government bottlenecks like the alcohol in gasoline mandate, which drives up gas and food prices and costs the taxpayer subsidies as well.
    8. Banks are willing to lend only to the most credit worthy, and they raise credit standards to insure they will be paid back.
    9. When Banks don’t lend our fractionated banking system (look it up, you can’t understand capitalism without an understanding of it) doesn’t increase the money supply, as the monetary measure M3 money supply hasn’t grown in 5 years despite Trillions in Fed printing proves.

    http://www.shadowstats.com/charts/monetary-base-money-supply

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