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Thinking Three Moves Ahead
How To Win Ukraine and Influence The Future

Kiev has de facto lost control over Crimea and parts of its east. The way forward is not to fight to get them back by force, however, but to win them back by demonstrating that a pro-EU orientation brings with it prosperity. The West must help make this a reality.

Published on: May 25, 2014
Vladislav Inozemtsev is Professor of Economics at Moscow State University, Director of the Moscow-based Center for Post-Industrial Studies and a fellow of the Institute for Human Sciences in Vienna, Austria.
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  • ShadrachSmith

    All the plans for what to do in the future depend on the turnout in the Ukrainian election on the 25th, tomorrow. All the work for the election has already been done, or left undone. Turnout on the 25th is the key indicator of the location of Russia’s southern border.

    Putin’s promise to respect the results of the election strongly suggests that he has plans in place to insure a small turnout. The game is pretty much over, we are just waiting to see the score.

  • Andrew Allison

    This article appears to me to be delusional. First, no matter how attractive Western Ukraine becomes (and given the insuperable barriers to entry into the EU and the fact that most of its GDP originates in the East, that’s very unlikely), now that Crimea is part of Russia, there’s no way in hell it will ever vote to re-join Ukraine. Kiev has already indicated that the new government will grant the (remaining) East much more autonomy (because it has no choice). With luck, that will be enough to keep them within Ukraine.

  • Prof. L. Wessell

    If the separated parts of the Ukraine are to join the Ukraine and its embracing the West, then it must and will, willy/nilly, also accept the “culture of death” (Benedict XVI) that constitutes West Europe. The richtest country is here in Germany and the birthrate is somewhere between 1.3 and 1.4 children per woman. In 2000 there were 15.2 milliion Germans 18 and younger and in 2011 down to 13 million (source “Der Spiegel”). David Goldman wrote a book “How Civilizations Die” and Germany (indeed, the EU) is illustrating the “how” revealed by Goldman.This awaits a EU-Ukraine. (I understand that the birthrate in Russia has gone up from 1.2 to 1.7 children per woman, an exception in the European death march). I understand that the birthrate In Ukraine is ca. 1.3 children per woman —and that is the long-term cultural death of the population if the trend keeps up. The wealth of German is great. But with the whole system comes the pushing of Gendermainsteaming, homosexualization as social norm, secularization, increasing anti-Christianity,. burdening families, etc., along with a MSM about as closed as the US MSM. Many traditional Christians, particularly Catholics, see in Putin an opposition to the very decadent West (as Putin has, following Solzhenitzyn, has repeatedly asserted — and I agree 110%).

    Maybe the riches of the West (one does not mean Greece or Spain or?) will win the day for the parts of the territory not under Russian control. But, does the author really expect that Russia will return the Crimea to the coup government (which it was or is)? Just a thought or two!

  • Pete

    The Ukraine — or even a truncated part of it — as part of the EU!

    What are you smoking, Bro? You think Germany wants another basket case of a country to support?

    That’s totally delusional; it’s just like all those multiculturalists a few years back who were saying Turkey was going to be let into the EU. See how foolish that looks today.

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