Danger Danger
Germany: Ukraine Is On The Brink Of War
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  • Corlyss

    “we are just a few steps away from a military confrontation,” he said.”

    Who’s ‘we?’ Certainly not NATO, certainly not Germany, certainly not the US. So who is he talking about? The international community?

    • Andrew Allison

      I think what he is referring to is a military confrontation between Ukraine and Russia. Unfortunately for Ukraine, there can only be one outcome to such a confrontation: loss of the pro-Russian regions.
      Personally, I don’t think that Moldova (other than Transdnistria) or the Balkans are at much risk — crossing the Dniester or invading the Balkans would almost certainly provoke a war which Putin neither wants nor needs in order to achieve his immediate objectives.

      • Corlyss

        Other than your traditional reluctance to get involved militarily, what’s the basis for your optimism about the Balkans? The policy wonks have been so wrong so often there’s little comfort in them.

        • Andrew Allison

          Huh? I’ve been suggesting that the serious threat of military intervention on the part of the West is the only thing that would stop Putin from taking eastern Ukraine and that obviously isn’t going to happen. What I suggested above was that there’s (hopefully) a real red line at the Dniester and the borders of the Baltic States. If it turns out to be an Obama-style red line, then the USSR will arise, Phoenix-like, from the dustbin of history.

  • ShadrachSmith

    How can there be a war? Ukraine doesn’t have an army that could win a decent bar fight. Putin doesn’t need to invade, he is annexing what he wants by putting on better elections than Ukraine can. The superior general wins the war without fighting battles.

    There will be bare-knuckle politics putting on the referendums to take Odessa, and all of the east necessary to provide lines of communication. Putin has a team of skilled, ruthless and brutal electioneering thugs who make the SEIU demonstrators taking dumps in the Wisconsin State House look like kindergarten teachers.

    No man knows the future, but Putin is already having new geography text-books prepared.

    • Zolicon

      ” How can there be a war? Ukraine doesn’t have an army that could win a decent bar fight.”
      Now that is funny.
      I told You that Russia was going to take Ukraine.

      • ShadrachSmith

        You were right.

        • Zolicon

          Thank You and this is one of those times it Truly SUCKS to be right.

          How many People do You know that can honestly say it Truly SUCKS to be right and mean it ?

  • lukelea

    WRM usually incisive analysis of foreign policy issues is sorely missed in connection to the crisis in Ukraine. It is hard for me not to wonder (suspect) that he is withholding comment because his views might offend the US State Dept. and the US foreign policy establishment in general, with which he has historically had very good relations.

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