Commodity Bust to Bring Down Russia?
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  • Pete

    So Mr. Mead, will a wounded bear be more dangerous ….. or will it tend to shy away from confrontations?

    I fear that with the man-child we have as a leader, it will be the former, and that could be the start of a true disaster in the making

  • Atanu Maulik

    The oil and gas sector constitutes 3% of US economy. If the oil price crashes down to pre-boom levels the remaining 97% will thrive. But what happens to Russia and OPEC ?

  • Jacksonian_Libertarian

    The Russian commodity business is now a much smaller part of the Russian economy than it was 20 years ago, as the Russian economy has become much more diversified. It’s also true that Russian oil and gas are almost pure profit and can easily undercut shale oil and gas. So don’t expect Russia to go bust, it would hurt, but Russia will adjust much quicker than you might think, and certainly better than single product countries like the Arab oil countries.

  • Kavanna

    I hate to disagree with Dr. Yergin, but the commodity supercycle went on its upswing in 2000 or 2001, not 2003. And it’s not over — it has at least a couple more years left. Even if the Fed reduces its money printing, we have money printing from the UK and Japan, plus many developing economies. Currency wars indeed.

    However, in the longer run, there’s no doubt that the end of the supercycle will hurt Russia badly. Oil and gas form most of its trade and fiscal surpluses. Russia is a medium-sized power with a declining population that just happens to have nuclear weapons.

  • Craig Austin

    I don’t think Mr. Putin is afraid of much, but I think “fracking” chills him to the bone.

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