A Tumultuous Game of Sanctions
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  • OT but why are we dealing with these people:

    Activist Chen Guangcheng wants to leave China, says authorities threatened to beat wife to death

  • Mrs. Davis

    The only sign I see in the tea leaves is that the world is accommodating itself to the idea that Iran will develop a nuclear weapons capability because it prefers to accept the long term risk of a nuclear Iran to incurring the short term cost of eliminating that capability.

  • vanderleun

    “Via Meadia sees promising signs in the tea leaves.”

    Remind me not to take any stock tips from you.

  • Cunctator

    Let me be a prophet — Iran will not give up its nuclear program no matter how tough the sanctions appear to be.

    If I were an Iranian leaders, I would however make some sort of ambiguously-worded international agreement that promises something to get some of the sanctions lifted. Obama will trumpet it as a huge diplomatic success, hoping that it will help get him re-elected. Meanwhile, the program will continue to move forward, with Iran claiming that it is adhering to the terms of the agreement. (Given how desperate Obama is for an agreement, they might well be truthful.) Then, when Obama is re-elected, it will be business as usual in Tehran. Obama will decry the “fact” that the wars that he inherited from Bush distracted him from doing anything to stop Iran when there still was time, and there is no longer any effective military option available to him.

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