The Syrian Stalemate
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  • I’m not sure that a bloody stalemate and fragmented Syria is the worst possible outcome. How about a grand Sunni alliance of like minded islamist governments in Egypt, Syria, and Turkey all attacking Israel at once and trying to drive Israel into the sea? More bluntly, I don’t think Sunni unity is in America’s strategic interests.

  • Egypt and Syria will both be basket cases for a long time to come.

    Turkey is a demagogic, Putin-on-the-Bosphorous semi-dictatorship, but I doubt Erdogan is apocalyptic-minded enough to actually start a military conflict with Israel.

    The best thing for U.S. interests right now is to break the Shiite axis, then contain the Sunnis with deterrence.

  • Walter Sobchak

    “Secretary Clinton told the BBC this morning that there “is every possibility” of a civil war in Syria.”

    Really goes out on a limb there, doesn’t she?

    Contez Nous, Cher Madame Secretary, how could we possibly begin to tell the difference between the way things are now in Syria, and a civil war?

  • Kris

    I notice one prominent exception in the long list of foreign interventionists: the militaristic and expansionist Israel, font of world instability, under its adventuristic and extremist Likud government. How odd that they are not taking advantage of this opportunity to overthrow the Assad regime and seize some more territory!

    [/sarc]

  • I have to emphatically agree with Pedro Marquez’s comment that breaking the Shi’ite axis is the main opportunity for US interests. Iran’s radical Khomeiniist Shi’ite regime has had a very convenient ally in Syria from which to wage proxy war and having to get along without a friendly Syrian regime would I think cramp them considerably. I believe Shi’ite dominated Iraq is a different situation because a large portion of Iraqi Shi’ites are led by Grand Ayatollah Sistani, the senior representative of the traditional branch of Shi’ia Islam. The Alawites of Syria are a small minority, often considered heretical by other Muslims, that has needed the Iranian alliance to survive. Iraqi Shi’ites are Arab, not Persian, and although there is a natural cohesion among the long persecuted Shi’ites there are also the divisive forces like the previously mentioned traditional versus radical schools and the Arab Persian split. All of which is to say that when the dust settles in Syria the sectarian map of the middle East has lots of potential to develop in complex and unexpected ways.

  • EvilBuzzard

    How is a bunch of Syrians killing eachother our problem?

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