Trend #4: Small ‘d’ democratization
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  • Jim.

    So are you predicting that the future will be a competition between illiberal democracies and liberal democracies? Or that there will still be charismatic strongmen elected from time to time, but they are not destined to have the long political career of Augustus or the quiet retirement of Sulla?

    It almost sounds like we might return to something like a constitutional monarchy — a strongman on top (tolerated for the sake of stability) who uses elections below to defuse and co-opt popular protest.

    Fukuyama will be terribly disappointed.

  • a nissen

    Two examples of whitewashed reality, never a good idea no matter one’s politics.

    “without embracing (and indeed while rejecting) the ideals of western democratic liberalism,, people around the world will be ‘small d’ democrats who insist on a greater say in what matters to them.”

    Time to stop glossing over the several quite opposite meanings implied by the word “liberal.”

    …Dictatorships and other authoritarian regimes often rely on the political passivity of their subjects for their survival…”

    “Disappears,” the fail-proof method of assuring passivity still trumps electronics. Neo-liberalism continues brainwashing at home and abetting client strongmen abroad, although dissappears are harder to justify,and so less open. A two in one example:

  • Corlyss

    “small ‘d’ democratization does not, in any case, always end in revolution”

    Right. Sometimes it ends in tyranny. Conditions have to be right for small “d” democracy to win. Its elements however are no secret.

    Sovereignty of the people.
    Government based upon consent of the governed.
    Majority rule.
    Minority rights.
    Guarantee of basic human rights.
    Free and fair elections.
    Equality before the law.
    Due process of law.
    Constitutional limits on government.
    Social, economic, and political pluralism.
    Values of tolerance, pragmatism, cooperation, and compromise.

    It also requires a strong and functioning middle class.

    Robert Kaplan often remarks that democracy functions best when it happens last, after all the necessary preconditions exist to sustain it.

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