In his “We Shall Fight Them on the Beaches” speech to the House of Commons in June 1940, Winston Churchill orated: “The New World, with all its power and might,” would “step forth to the rescue and the liberation of the old.”
America did step forth to save Europe—and again, when Stalin tried to bag the Western half. And now? Is the savior turning into the demolition man?
Donald Trump has called NATO “obsolete,” speaking like a mercenary: Pay up, or we pull out. He has cheered Britain’s exit from the European Union, crowing that “it’s gonna be very hard to keep it together.”
In the Bannon Wing of the White House, the President’s chief strategist went one worse, signaling the Europeans that the European Union was a flawed construction; hence the U.S. government would be happy to deal with them one-by-one. So, the European Union is also “obsolete.
Messrs. Trump and Bannon have forgotten that Europe is the proudest child of American postwar diplomacy. By extending security Made in USA, America put an end to ancient enmities, allowing arch-foes like France and Germany to link hands across the Rhine. The U.S. underwrote the insurance policy that guaranteed peace for the first time in Europe’s bloody history.
Nor was so much generosity just a selfless act. Having rescued Europe twice in two world wars at an enormous price, the United States did so again in the Cold War, yet without having to fire a single shot in the confrontation with the Soviet Union. What a bargain compared to real war, as in 1917 and 1941! America gained not only permanent allies but also what is now the largest trade and investment relationship on the globe.
To let go, the U.S. would commit an act of spectacular folly. “America First” would yield to “America home alone.” Why would the 45th President want to face Russia and China without Europe, America’s most precious strategic and economic asset?
It boggles the mind that the mightiest power on earth would voluntarily vacate its perch at the top of the global hierarchy. But wait! Before the Europeans double their Valium intake, they should absorb the Administration’s startling change in tone.
In an interview with Reuters late on Thursday, Mr. Trump suddenly avowed his support for the European Union as a governing body, adding that he was “totally in favor of it.” And go back a few days and listen to his high-level emissaries at the Munich Security Conference, the annual confab of the West’s strategic community.
Vice President Mike Pence celebrated America’s “unwavering . . . commitment to this Transatlantic alliance,” insisting that that the “fates of the United States and Europe are intertwined.” Jim Mattis, the Secretary of Defense, praised “our enduring Transatlantic bond,” hailing NATO as “best alliance in the world.” Mattis also found kind words for “European unity” as twin of “Transatlantic unity.” “Obsolete” was yesterday, we should conclude, and more. Given Trump’s own words last weekend, Pence and Mattis were not making nice, but lip-syncing for the President.
So the Atlantic sky is not falling after all. Naturally, the kudos came with a catch. Instead of threats, Messrs. Pence and Martin delivered silken words of warning: You better shape up; you have to invest big-time in the common defense. After all, you promised back in 2014 to hike spending to 2 percent of GDP. Yet among the 26 European alliance members, only four have lived up to the pledge, among them tiny Estonia.
Such complaints have a long tradition. U.S. politicians have delivered the same message since the mid-1960s: Pay up, or we cut back. With Donald Trump in the White House, the threat sounds empty no more. Over the weekend, Trump repeated it in his own words: “They owe a lot of money,” so the Europeans must ease the burden on the U.S. budget.
Pointedly, Jim Mattis admonished them to “adopt a plan this year, including milestone dates, to make steady progress” toward 2 percent. So why would the Europeans be cowed? Because reality bites. After twenty years of cashing in their peace dividends, they are caught between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, and there is no way out.
Trump tweets, Putin acts. It started on Barack Obama’s watch, soon after the illusory “reset.” Russian expansionism is now the new normal. Putin grabbed Crimea in 2014, then launched a surrogate war against Ukraine’s southeast. Intimidating the Baltics, he keeps probing NATO defenses all over the European theater. Russia is now calling the shots in Syria, where it is back after forty years.
With the Russians on a roll, the Europeans have had to face up to reality long before Donald Trump started sniping at them. Germany, a traditional bastion of pacifism, is the best bellwether. Last year, Berlin racked up defense spending by an astounding 8 percent. And well the Germans should, having cut their troop strength down to one-third, and their panzers from 3,500 to 250.
So Messrs. Trump and Putin have unwittingly worked the same side of the street—one by way of a shakedown, the other more brutally and palpably by ratcheting up the pressure on NATO’s eastern flank. Dr. Johnson was right: Nothing concentrates the mind more wonderfully than the prospect of an imminent hanging. Jim Mattis may be right, too. Rattled by reality, NATO remains America’s “best alliance.” Why else would this Administration be beefing up U.S. forces in Europe as we speak?
You don’t send a battle group to Poland to put your troops in harm’s way if the world’s longest-lived alliance is “obsolete.”
