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Elections 2016
What’s Really Going on in Iran
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  • Beauceron

    “A preponderance of western commentary seems to be hailing a win for “reformers” in Iran.”
    Of course they are. We are in a period of politics where the ruling party and the ruling cultural elites are from the same group. They work hard to support one another.

  • Fat_Man

    What’s going on Iran? I’ll tell you what is going on in Iran. Iran is a autocracy run by an old man with a private army. He will stay in power as long as he is alive and can continue to pay the troops. Obama has ensured that the old man will be able to pay the troops, by giving him $150 Billion. One of these days the old man will die, although that may take a distressingly long time — Robert Mugabe is now 95 years old and still terrorizing his unhappy subjects.

    When the old man dies, either the successor he designated will take over, the private army will designate a successor, or there will be a civil war amongst armed factions. The Roman Empire affords examples of all three modes. The Antonine Emperors ruled in the first mode in the 2nd Century of the Christian Era. There were numerous examples of the second and third modes, and often they are combined.

    It is not impossible for the mode of succession in their written Constitution to be implemented, nor is it impossible for democracy to break out, after all some times pigs can fly and sometimes shrimp whistle.

    A less unlikely complication is foreign intervention, most likely Russian as they are a contiguous country with nuclear weapons and a history of imperialist intervention.

    • CapitalHawk

      Minor point – Russia does not share a border with Iran. USSR did. Russia does not.

      • Fat_Man

        Land border. Yes. I could not quickly find a map that showed boundaries in the Caspian Sea. OTOH, If the Russians send a brigade of tanks towards Iran, can Azerbaijan do anything about it other than complain? So strategically, they are contiguous.

  • Rodney

    “Elections are about allowing the public to vent some steam while keeping control firmly in the hands of the Supreme Leader and his closest allies.” This almost sounds like the last three congressional elections over here.

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