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The Nuclear Deal Fallout
What If the Nuke Deal Doesn’t Change Everything?
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  • Arkeygeezer

    The main consequence for the United States is that the U.S. and Iran are talking with each other rather than shooting at each other.

    • from the Sinai

      Talking with each other and shooting at each other weren’t the only choices. There was also “we talk, they listen.” No hope of that now.

      • Arkeygeezer

        So, would you rather that they shoot at each other rather than talking? As a citizen of the United States on the other side of the world, I do not think that our people should die to preserve your hope and prejudice.

    • rheddles

      I belkieve you mean that the US and Iran are talking to each other as they covertly shoot at each other.

  • TheRadicalModerate

    “If the Iranians can pocket the cumulative military value of their violations and still walk out of the agreement anytime they judge it to be propitious, then the claim that the deal buys us at least 15 years of calm, non-crisis strategic oxygen is completely bogus. In just
    five years or even less, we could easily be back in the stark position the President described yesterday: diplomacy or war.”

    If Iran actually takes their stock of 3.5% LEU down from 10 tonnes to a 300 kg, then a violation doesn’t get it immediately to a breakout (which is the situation right now), and walking away from the agreement is a clear signal that it actually intends to break out. That’s a pretty bright line that it has to cross, and it knows that crossing it will almost certainly lead to a military response.

    That actually is a game-changer, because the status quo ante is one where Iran can ooze over the breakout line any time it wants. With 10 tonnes of LEU feedstock, it takes only two or three months to have enough weapons-grade HEU to make multiple bombs–an event the West could miss pretty easily. The deal clarifies the situation: nullifying the deal implies that the sprint to breakout has begun, and Iran can expect to be on the receiving end of an attempt to destroy the program in short order. Clarity is a game-changer.

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