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The Syrian Civil War
Is the Assad Regime Bled White?
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  • wigwag

    “Given its small and shrinking base of support, the survival of the Assad government is very much an open question—especially now that the Saudis and other Sunnis, no longer confident that the U.S. has their backs, are focusing on ways of dealing with Iran and the Shi’a on their own.” (Via Meadia)

    Not to mention the Israelis who would, if they were smart, assist the Sunnis in their effort to wrest control of Syria from the Alawites. It’s not the that the Sunni insurgents aren’t repugnant; they are. They would happily turn their guns on Israelis just as soon as they get the chance. But Hezbollah and Iran are bigger threats. Eliminating Assad and, in the process, severely damaging Hezbollah, seems well worth the price of having to battle Sunni extremists later on.

    • solstice

      Israel would abet a horrific genocide against the Alawites and other Syrian minorities if it were to assist the Sunni jihadists against the Assad regime. That would be obscene for a country founded as a result of and in the aftermath of a genocide. The aftermath would be no different than what happened to the Iraqi Yazidis. Israel should sit this one out and let its enemies butcher each other.

  • Albert8184

    Maybe Assad’s survival will depend on how cooperative his regime is with ISIS’ future plans to use Syrian territory as a launching ground for an invasion of Israel. What I wonder is, where does Putin’s Russian stand in all of this?

  • jeburke

    Would Iran intervene directly at some point if Assad were crumbling? Once it has pocketed a nuclear agreement, it might. Would it be deterred by the prospect of a Saudi-led coalition jumping in too? Maybe not, as long as Turkey isn’t involved militarily. Who knows. This is a long way from over. In any case, I doubt Iran will sit idly by as a Sunni jihadist state is founded on its border.

    • Ellen

      A Sunni jihadist state won’t be on the border with Iran, but rather with Iraq and Israel and Jordan. According to Lebanese warlord Walid Jumblatt, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards are already approaching the Druze area in Southern Syria by the thousands. This may be the point at which the Druze are finally forced to choose sides and seek protection from either Jordan or Israel. This could be a very interesting turning point in this war, as the Alawites appear to be going down, and Iran will now have to make its move to effectively turn Syria into a Persian colony in order to maintain its influence.

      So, the question will become, “Does Iran still oppose colonialism, when the colonizing power is itself, rather than a European one?”

  • Ellen

    I will never understand how Assad and his Alawite Generals could have come up with the strategy of fighting a long, drawn out war of attrition against a Sunni population that – even without foreign jihadis – was 5-6 times as large. Once their homes, villages and neighborhoods were destroyed, the Sunnis had nothing to lose in fighting to the death, and they are doing so now. But it is the Alawites who will be destroyed in this war of attrition, not the Sunnis, who have the manpower to recover afterwards, even if it takes an entire generation.

    Israeli war planners have always understood that they can’t fight a war of attrition against an Arab world that places no value on the lives of its soldiers and is many times larger. So, they came up with other strategies. How horribly cynical and cruel was the Alawite Generals’ strategy, given that there was never any chance the Alawites would win this civil war. That is simply a fantasy of Western liberals who persist in the belief that Assad is better than Al Nusra or ISIS. He isn’t – he is worse. And he is now going down with his rotten regime.

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