mead cohen berger shevtsova garfinkle michta grygiel blankenhorn
Romney Defeats Obama

The disastrous rollout of the Obamacare website, the continued revelations about the extent of NSA surveillance, the lingering IRS scandals and the administration’s continued fecklessness in the Middle East have all done a number on Obama’s image over the past year. But just how bad was the damage, exactly? The Washington Post reports that if the 2012 election were held today, voters would favor Romney over Obama by 49 percent to 45 percent. To get a sense of what this would look like, here’s an electoral map with the national poll data mapped state-by-state onto the 2012 campaign results (our justification for our simple methodology explained in more detail here). According to this model, Romney would win the electoral college with a total of 331 votes to Obama’s 207, essentially a reverse of last year’s result. For Obama, it seems, the election couldn’t have come at a better time.

[iframe src=’’ width=’100%’ height=’430px’]

Features Icon
show comments
  • Matt B

    “For Obama, it seems, the election couldn’t have come at a better time”. More accurately, the ACA was perfectly planned to allow Obama’s promises to retain credibility until after the election.

    • Corlyss

      Absolutely. Sometimes I wonder about WRM’s seeming callowness.

      • Andrew Allison

        Nobody’s perfect, but on the whole VM does a remarkably good job, in this case suggesting, albeit circumspectly, that the election was won on the basis of deliberate deception (let us not forget the fake employment report), which has become the hallmark of this Administration.

        • Corlyss

          Not willing to believe the “suggesting.” Too many instances when insights stop short of the savvy mark and fall into the “giving the benefit of the doubt” pool that simply mocks patience and defies his own credibility.

  • Corlyss

    Oh, stop already. This does absolutely no good now.

  • JackSheldon

    This is in the category of were if’s and but’s beer and nuts we’d have a helluva party. This party is over. We have Romneycare.

    • Corlyss

      Well, at least Romneycare worked somewhat for a small population even if it suffers from the same unintended consequences that Obamacare is now bring down on the heads of the public.

      • JackSheldon

        Ah, but it does not. Mass has the highest healthcare prices in the nation.

        • Corlyss

          Oy! I I didn’t know that. But if that’s true, how come so many doctors fled to neighboring states? Seems like there’s gold in them thar messed up public policy hills.

          • JackSheldon

            I don’t know if that’s true? Medical research is tops in Mass. What’s happening is general practice MD’s won’t accept Medicaid patients, and that is expanding, so…

          • Corlyss

            Granted I don’t have a site for you, but I recall hearing that when Romneycare first opened up, the first few months to a year.

  • Tom Sramek Jr

    I would be a lot harsher on Obama for the ACA web site fiasco if the Republican-dominated House hadn’t forced him to beg and borrow (I don’t think he had to steal…) to get the thing up in the first place. Rather than trying to fix the problems, Republicans concentrated on crippling the program for political points. If you don’t care about doing yourself harm as long as you do your opponent harm, this is what you get.

  • Tom Sramek Jr

    Listen, folks, I heard _from the Republican members of congress_ their increasingly desperate tactics designed to do one thing: defund Obamacare. Not fix it. Not address it’s shortcomings. Starve it to death. Now I hear some of those same Republicans critical of the administration for not devoting enough resources to roll the program out successfully The administration shoulders some blame, but the hypocracy is stunning.

    I often wonder what would have happened if the Republicans had attempted to actually refine and perfect an idea that was originally theirs rather than labeling it “Obamacare” and trying to kill it.

    And, just for the record, I am a moderate Republican that is pretty disgusted by both sides.

    • Corlyss

      It’s a lawyer’s gimmick. Called “arguing in the alternative.” It’s how they can go for murder 1 and simultaneously manslaughter 3 (the latter removes intent from the murder calculation). It is of no practical consequence in a court if your alternative contradicts your principal argument because the judge understands it in a way that non-lawyer Everyman never will. It’s throwing everything at the wall and seeing what sticks. Republicans criticize EVERYTHING about Obamacare.

    • John Stephens


  • GodisanAmerican

    Congrats GOP. Victory in imaginary elections.

  • Boritz

    I used to be the next president of the United States. –Al Gore

© The American Interest LLC 2005-2016 About Us Masthead Submissions Advertise Customer Service