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The Obamacare Data Floodgates Start to Open


The data on Obamacare has started to flow hard and fast into the public square. Three new resources out this week should be very helpful in piecing together the law’s effects. Avik Roy has  a comprehensive analysis of state-by-state premium shifts under Obamacare, including an interactive map and revised estimates. Across the 13 states currently reporting rates, Roy finds an average increase of 24 percent, with the rates highly variable across states.

Notably, he’s revised his California numbers: new developments have lowered the predicted increase for the young from 81 percent to 23 percent, while Vermont, which was expected to have lower rates under the ACA, will see an average increase of 97 percent. The piece states that there’s more data to come, and of course we’re still waiting on the numbers from the other 37 states.

Meanwhile, WaPo reports on the “biggest study yet of premiums” by the data analysis firm Alvare Health:

The sticker price for a 21-year-old buying a mid-range policy will average about $270 a month. That’s before government tax credits that act like a discount for most people, bringing down the cost based on their income.

List-price premiums for a 40-year-old buying a mid-range plan will average close to $330, the study by Avalere Health found. For a 60-year-old, they were nearly double that at $615 a month.

The story calls the results “mixed,” in that some will like their options and others won’t. This seems generally consistent with Roy’s findings about rate variability. Obamacare will have winners and losers, as any health reform would, but the question is how many losers there will be, how much they will lose, and whether they will take the law down with them.

A third resource may shed some light on the first of those questions. Investor’s Business Daily has started keeping a comprehensive list of every employer cutting jobs because of the ACA. The list only includes those companies that have attributed their cuts to the ACA in either official documents or news stories. Right now, the list contains 258 employers, but there are surely more to come.

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  • bpuharic

    270 a month is a bargain

    When the company I worked for went bankrupt I could buy COBRA….when I was 40….at 1200 a month.My neighbor, 60 yrs old, retired school teacher who had cancer paid 2100 a month for his health insurance

    So what you’re saying is we’re getting a bargain with Obamacare?

    yeah…kinda knew that.

    • NCMountainGirl

      Was that $1200 for individual coverage? That sounds like family overage to me, When I left work at 50 nt Cobra for individual coverage was about $35o. month.

  • Pait

    Hasn’t Avik Roy’s methodology been already completely debunked?

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