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Fighting the Energy Bears

The brand new business publication of the Atlantic Group, Quartz, will be doing an Energy Revolution beat (or “obsession” in their parlance). In one of their first articles, they take on the energy bears—analysts who predict that we’re headed for severe energy shortages in the near term:

The scarcity scenarists generally forecast only through 2020, while the abundance advocates typically talk longer range—through 2030 and beyond. I emailed Oswald Clint, lead author of the Bernstein report, to ask whether the scarcity scenario holds after 2020, when Russian, east African and South American oil and gas volumes begin to reach market. “If Russia works and the Arctic and Kenya, etc. etc., then it may not be the case that our $150-per-barrel (projection) in 2020 keeps inflating higher,” Clint replied. “The scale of Russia could be sizeable, but we will get data and answers on this in the next 2 years, which will help us think about the next decade.”

In other words, even if the bears are right for now, there might be a different story after 2020. And if they are wrong? Early signals of the geopolitical impact of energy abundance are already apparent in Russia and Europe, suggesting that it is worth watching for its effects elsewhere as well.

The article then lists the five ways the Energy Revolution may play out in geopolitical terms—a topic we’ve been working for a while now. Do read the whole thing. We’ll be following Quartz’s “obsession” ourselves.

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