As Greece descends further into chaos, with riots on the streets and mass expulsions from the major political parties, its creditors in Northern Europe seem surprisingly nonchalant, a stark contrast from their anxiety only a few weeks ago. A report in today’s FT claims that Germany and the other creditor governments have reassessed the potential fallout from a Greek default and now believe that they could emerge relatively unscathed. Newly confident German ministers are pushing Greece to adopt much more stringent austerity measures than originally expected, including the possibility of technocratic governance, as in Italy.Many analysts interviewed in the article, however, are skeptical about the recent change of heart. Two weeks ago, nearly everyone believed that a Greek default would wreak havoc on the European financial system and lead to a devastating credit crunch. Now, apparently, nobody is worried, but it’s not clear what, if anything, has changed. Some believe that this is merely a German bluff to wring more concessions from a recalcitrant Greece, yet the French government and the European Central Bank seem to think they’re serious.One thing is certain: The world’s financial experts don’t understand the financial system nearly as well as they’ve claimed. The European debt crisis has dragged on for more than a year with relatively little change, and predictions for the future seem to vary wildly on a week-to-week basis. One week disaster is imminent, the next the crisis is nearly solved. Feckless European politicians have taken deserved criticism for dithering in the face of the largest crisis since World War II, but the brightest and best-paid experts who have utterly failed to comprehend or explain the situation deserve some of the blame as well.