Greens often tell us that the science of climate change is “settled”. In broad outlines, perhaps — but the details, timing, and the interrelationship of key factors remain frustratingly obscure.One of the hot green disaster scenarios is that melting Arctic ice will reach a “tipping point” in the near future. The latest research suggests that this is a crock. From the BBC:
[A Danish research team] found evidence that ice levels were about 50% lower 5,000 years ago. They say changes to wind systems can slow down the rate of melting. They argue, therefore, that a tipping point under current scenarios is unlikely.For about 3,000 years…there was more open water and far less ice than today – probably less than 50% of the minimum Arctic sea ice recorded in 2007…Even with a loss of this size, the sea ice will not reach a point of no return.
Oh, and the polar bears seem to have survived this great melting quite nicely. Indeed, the biosphere as a whole seems to have adjusted to much greater temperature changes than anything now on the table.This is a good thing; given the political and intellectual incoherence of the green movement, we are going to have to rely on nature more than on environmentalists to get us through whatever comes next.