mead cohen berger shevtsova garfinkle michta grygiel blankenhorn
Egyptian Protests Losing Momentum?

According to the NYT, they are.  The most likely outcome in Egypt is stagnation: they will tweak the system but Egypt’s economic and social performance will not change much overall.  Second most likely outcome?  Economic and social problems escalate with the ultimate victory of a more authoritarian and perhaps more Islamist regime.  Least likely outcome: liberal breakout.

Mead advice to policy makers: Hope for the third, plan for the first, do what you can to firewall the second.

Mead to investors: bank on stagnation, hedge against chaos.

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  • Damir Marusic

    Interested readers ought to click over to what is still one of the better analyses on the web—from the May/June 2011 issue of The American Interest—as to why Egypt is turning out so different from Tunisia (though Tunisia ain’t no picnic either).

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