According to the NYT, they are. The most likely outcome in Egypt is stagnation: they will tweak the system but Egypt’s economic and social performance will not change much overall. Second most likely outcome? Economic and social problems escalate with the ultimate victory of a more authoritarian and perhaps more Islamist regime. Least likely outcome: liberal breakout.Mead advice to policy makers: Hope for the third, plan for the first, do what you can to firewall the second.Mead to investors: bank on stagnation, hedge against chaos.