Global tight oil production—that is, oil produced from shale formations—is set to jump 108 percent over the next 24 years, according the latest projections from the Energy Information Administration. The EIA reports:
World tight oil production is expected to more than double between 2015 and 2040, increasing from 4.98 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2015 to 10.36 million b/d in 2040, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s International Energy Outlook 2016 and Annual Energy Outlook 2016. Most of the projected increase will come from the United States, with much of the rest coming from countries such as Russia, Canada, and Argentina that have significant tight oil resources and existing, developed oil industries.
Canada, Russia, and Argentina are all expected to start producing crude in commercial quantities from shale over the next two decades, but most of the heavy lifting of the projected increase in tight oil production will be coming from U.S. frackers. The EIA continues:
United States tight oil production, which reached 4.6 million b/d in March 2015 but fell to 4.1 million b/d in June 2016, has proven more resilient to low oil prices than many analysts had anticipated. U.S. tight oil production is expected to reach 7.1 million b/d in 2040 in the AEO2016 Reference case.
The EIA expects American oil production from American shale to increase by 75 percent by 2040, a remarkable jump for an industry that has already remade the U.S. energy landscape. Hydraulic fracturing and horizontal well drilling have already bolstered American energy security and given our economy a timely boost, but shale firms’ work isn’t done yet. The oil price collapse may have put a dent in the shale boom over the past two years, but companies are getting their feet back under them once again, and there are signs that a rebound is now underway. In the long run, American oil production is only going to go up.