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Limping to Paris
Officials Hedging Ahead of Climate Summit

We’re less than three weeks away from the start of the COP21 climate summit in Paris, and it seems the enormity of the task that’s now almost at hand is starting to dawn on officials. As Reuters reports, Sweden’s own environment minister is bracing for a slog when negotiators meet in France:

Negotiations to reach a climate change deal next month in Paris are likely to go down to the final moments with financing remaining one of the toughest subjects on which to reach agreement, senior Swedish officials said. […]

“A lot of ministers are not happy that the text is so full of brackets so close to the meeting,” Sweden’s Environment Minister Asa Romson told reporters late on Monday as ministers gathered for warm-up talks. […]

Asked about the issue of nations promising financing and not yet delivering while developing nations hold back waiting for the cash, Romson said it was clearly “not very helpful” for negotiators when promises were not fulfilled.

Moreover, Sweden’s own chief climate negotiator conceded that talks would likely run all the way through the end of the two week conference, and while these sorts of comments may be realistic (and, judging by the general lack of progress clarifying the working draft document, they almost certainly are), they also betray a lack of confidence in and hope for the whole Paris process. Finally, these statements are a way for leaders to manage expectations: The only way anyone will be able to call whatever Paris produces a success is by deflating expectations now. Any way you slice it, leading officials don’t seem to think Paris will see meaningful success.

Greens hoping for a binding global treaty should start steeling themselves for disappointment, because such a deal just isn’t in the cards. And, with disagreements over climate financing—that is, money paid by the developed world to the world’s poorer countries to help them adapt to and mitigate climate change—already casting a shadow over negotiations, there’s a chance Paris won’t even be able to produce a non-binding agreement.

For boosters of this process, it’s clear that the plan at this point is to hedge and equivocate as much as possible in the hopes of lowering the bar, so that they might have something to cheer five weeks from now.

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  • Andrew Allison

    Can we please stop pretending that there’s any likelihood of meaningful action resulting from this charade.

  • Blackbeard

    TAI keeps putting up these posts suggesting the Greens are losing this fight. As King Pyrrhus is supposed to have said, a few more such victories and we are undone.

    In the US, and in western Europe, the Greens have won. Witness Keystone XL, Obama’s Clean Power Plan. the War on Coal, Germany’s Energiewende, etc. Coming soon will be the outlawing of all cars with internal combustion engines (California, 2030), brutal excise taxes on air travel (Europe, 2020) and other attempts to roll back the industrial revolution. Meanwhile China, India, and the rest of the rational world will continue to build 500 coal plants a year and happily absorb the jobs and industries we apparently don’t want.

  • http://geocurrents.info Martin W. Lewis

    From your post:
    “and it seems the enormity of the task that’s now almost at hand is starting to dawn on officials.”
    From the dictionary:
    “e·nor·mi·ty

    iˈnôrmədē/
    noun
    1.
    the great or extreme scale, seriousness, or extent of something perceived as bad or morally wrong.
    “a thorough search disclosed the full enormity of the crime”

    2.
    a grave crime or sin.
    “the enormities of the regime”
    synonyms:wickedness, evil, vileness, baseness, depravity; More

    • Jim__L

      That works.

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