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Election Day
What If the GOP Takes the Senate?

As Americans head to the polls today to decide the makeup of the Senate, a question that’s sure to be on their minds is, “What if the GOP takes the Senate?” TAI asked two distinguished political analysts, Michael Barone and Kyle Kondik, what the main effects of the Republicans’ capturing the Senate would be.

Michael Barone tells us, notwithstanding all of the heated criticism of the President’s policies in the Middle East and elsewhere, to expect only minor tremors in foreign policy:

[T]he Obama Administration already has officials in place in the most important posts—Secretary of State and Secretary of Defense—and, like all Administrations, has considerable leeway in the conduct of foreign policy and the deployment of military forces. Republican capture of the Senate could alter the balance of power and move the fulcrum point of negotiations on foreign policy to some extent. But it will not necessarily alter American foreign policy in a major way for the remaining two years of the Obama Administration, and it is even more unlikely to make a difference in crisis decision-making.

Kyle Kondik, meanwhile, thinks that gridlock won’t get any worse if the GOP takes the Senate but thinks there’s a real possibility for a major showdown over judicial confirmations:

Assuming Republicans could keep their caucus together—a big “if” that greatly depends on the size of a new majority—a Republican-led Senate could potentially reject any and all Obama nominees for Administration positions and judicial appointments. That includes anyone Obama would nominate for a hypothetical Supreme Court vacancy. Given the immense value to both parties of lifetime Supreme Court appointments, it’s worth considering the potential for a truly historic and divisive showdown between Obama and the Senate over a Supreme Court nomination.

Both are worth your time as you wait for the election results to roll in this evening.

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  • Anthony

    “In simplest terms, the basic story of the modern standoff between the two parties is that Democrats cannot attract enough whites to consistently control congress, and Republicans cannot attract enough nonwhites to consistently win the White House. Nothing that happens this week is likely to displace that truth. If Tuesday’s results produce the GOP gains that now appear most likely, the stage will be set for a titanic 2016 presidential election between a Democratic Party weakened by deepening disenchantment with Obama’s performance, and a Republican Party hobbled by its difficulty adapting to changing demography.”

    • FriendlyGoat

      Some Democrats (and young Republicans) are disenchanted with Obama because he could not get them more and better jobs. They do not realize that the tax cuts of the last 36 years are the headwind blowing against job creation, so they blame the Dem president and imply they might want a GOP president instead—— who would then sink their boat DEEPER in the water. Heck, not even the unprecedented trillions manufactured by the FED can make jobs while tax cuts are widening the wealth divide (killing livable jobs with a larger overwhelming force.

      • Anthony

        The attitude and policy consequence you imply tie into our last exchange (general public in many instances not clear on their real interests in “democracy for the few”). Capitalist culture is essentially a market culture that minimizes cooperative efforts and human interdependence while keeping us busily competing as workers, consumers, red states, blue states, etc. And comfortable scapegoating…

        • FriendlyGoat

          We know something is amiss, for instance, when Nebraskans elect Republicans, as usual, and also vote to raise the minimum wage. Disconnect. Disconnect. Disconnect.

          • Anthony

            Someone told me a long long time ago that the great bulk of citizens are thoroughly “muddy-minded” about politics, swayed by feeling rather than reason not always capable of clear-headed thought or understanding. When I was told such, I thought the adviser was being unduly critical. But, he may have had better insight than I. “Where the voting public goes wrong is in whom it accepts in each jurisdiction as plausible candidates – not men of proven knowledge, ability and purpose but men who appeal to various unexamined prejudices: ethnic, religious, national-origin, occupational, asethetic, regional, personal and the like. As Plato brought out in his dialogue Gorgias the politician uses rhetoric to flatter and seduce his public and to carry the decision even against the man of knowledge and sound judgment.”


  • Charles Hurst

    Exactly what is the GOP planning to do? Suddenly become Patriots? They have acted just as treasonous as the Democrats for fourteen years. In and out of majority.

    When I predicted Obama would be elected many conservatives said there was no way it would happen. As they put up McCain. Then in 2012 I said he would be reelected—who did GOP give us? Romney. And I predict they will give us another member of the establishment and they will lose again in 2016. They just don’t get it.

    As I have said many times I have predicted we are going to collapse—this prophecy in my
    fiction taken straight from history of other fallen nations. GOP has no
    intention of reducing the debt. They have no intention of enforcing our border
    laws. They have no intention of finally standing up and stating that one man
    should not work to support another.

    When you have that collection of caustic elements in the pot the only result is poison for
    the country. And when it is forced down our throats the only outcome is the
    death of our nation. It doesn’t matter whether Hillary or the GOP is holding
    the spoon—it is the same poison.

    If the GOP would NOT like our country to collapse and would like to win the next presidential
    then maybe they should try a few conservative points. Start with no amnesty for
    illegals, huge reduction of entitlements and a plan to actually reduce our
    debt. If they aren’t going to say that then expect my vote to go to the Tea
    Party. I won’t be the one giving it to Hillary—they will—by their treason.

    I’m two for two in my predictions—so go ahead GOP—prove me right again in 2016.

    Charles Hurst. Author of THE SECOND FALL. An offbeat story of Armageddon. And creator of THE RUNNINGWOLF EZINE

    • FriendlyGoat

      It sounds like you want the GOP to put up a Tea Party type—–and if they don’t, then your vote will go to the Tea Party (off in a third-party fringe? We can hope.)

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