A “Yes” vote in Scotland is looking to create a huge mess in the disuniting kingdom. David Cameron, who would become the Prime Minister who lost Scotland, may well be forced to call a new election.Here are the latest horse race figures from YouGov:
Yes, losing Scotland would ultimately hurt Labour far more than the Conservatives. But in the meantime, it’s quite conceivable we could see Labour in power presiding over the breakup. That government, however, is likely to be a strange (and weak) one: UKIP and the LibDems now have enough seats to make forming a government much more complicated.Make no mistake: the break-up of a 300 year old union that within living memory was the greatest power on earth will resonate. And at a time of crisis in the Middle East and Europe, where the UK remains a key U.S. ally, it’s going to make life even harder.On the long term prospects, we have no view. For all we know, in the long run both England and Scotland might be better off apart than together. But in the short term, we’ve got a mess on our hands.