According to the Centre for Economic and Business Research, the UK will surpass both France and Germany to become the largest economy in Europe in the next 20 years, second only to the United States in the West. The Telegraph:
In an upbeat assessment of the country’s prospects, the CEBR said Britain, the sixth biggest economy in the world, will see its GDP grow from £1.59 trillion to £2.64 trillion by 2028.
In the same period, Germany’s output will grow more slowly from £2.2 trillion to £2.69 trillion, with growth hampered by a weak euro, an ageing population and the prospect of future Eurozone bailouts. It puts Britain on course to surpass Germany by 2030.
Britain is also due to overtake France by 2018. Its global ranking is set to slide as Francois Hollande’s high tax regime and weak exports suffocate growth.
Just four years ago, the conventional wisdom was proclaiming the death of “Anglo-Saxon” capitalism against the allegedly superior, more regulated Continental social market economies. We’ll see—long term economic forecasts are almost always wrong, but the CEBR is onto something. Continental Europe’s reckless adoption of the euro has mired its leading economies in the greatest man-made disaster since World War Two, and both the demographic and the state debt indicators look grim.The UK has its share of problems, and may not even be a united country in 20 years, but not all that long ago people were talking about Italy’s success in passing the UK. It’s an unspeakably horrible thought for some, but the dread Anglo-Saxon capitalism may still have a few things to teach the rest of the world.