Obamacare Succeeds or Fails on This One Number
adverse selection, which occurs when healthy people drop out of the insurance pool, leaving only the sick and the old behind. We’ve always known Obamacare needed to enroll a large number of new patients to avoid adverse selection and make the law work. Now we know what number the administration thinks is viable.Politico reports that HHS has announced a concrete figure. Secretary Sebelius has embraced a CBO projection that 7 million new insured by the end of March is the magic number. This is the first milestone Obamacare needs to reach on its way to adding 24 million new insured by 2023. Failure to achieve it will be a very bad sign for the future of the law. Presumably officials have done the math and figured out that they need at least this many more people in the risk pool to avoid major rate increases.Enrollment starts in October, so the administration has just six months to make this happen. Game on.